After Thursdays sell off in risk we had some rebound in risk during the Asian session overnight which will spillover into Europe. With no important data out today we expect a quiet day in markets.
Calendar
Economic Data Releases
|
|
Country
| Time (GMT)
| Name
| Expectation
| Prior
| Comment
|
EC
| 08:00
| ECB’s Weber Speaks in Frankfurt
| -
| -
| -
|
EC
| 10:30
| ECB’s Trichet Speaks in Frankfurt
| -
| -
| -
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
What's going on?
· After Thursdays sell off in risk (equities, commodities and AUD, EUR vs. JPY, USD and CHF we had some rebound in risk during the Asian session overnight and we expect this to continue into the European session. With no important data out today expect a quiet day in markets.
· US macro data seems to be softening a bit – claims, leading indicators and mortgage delinquencies disappointing yesterday. On the back of this we could see some further retracement in risk across asset classes in the very short term.
· Gold is continuing higher as Chinese consumers demand for gold reached record levels in the third quarter. China was the sole market where gold jewellery demand is up in Q3 with large falls YoY being recorded in India and the Middle East.
FX
FX
| Daily stance
| Comment
|
EURUSD
| 0/-
| Expect rebound to stall at 1.4935 lvl, 1.4975 max, for retracement to 1.4845-50. Stop abv 1.5015
|
USDJPY
| 0/-
| Now capped at 89.10-15 for a re-test of 88.40, stop abv 89.75
|
EURJPY
| 0
| 200-day MA holding for now. Likely ranging 132.2 – 133.2
|
GBPUSD
| 0/-
| Prefer to sell rallies to 1.67 for a test of 1.6620 then 1.6520. Stop abv 1.6755
|
AUDUSD
| 0/-
| Rebound seen limited to 0.9215-20 for retracement back to 0.9130 then 0.9100. Stop abv 0.9255
|
FX Options
FX-Options
| Comment
|
EURUSD
| Vols opened slightly higher in Europe yesterday but has since leveled off with the 1m
|
| riskies trading .75 vols EUR puts. Gamma is unlikely to be bid until we see bigger moves.
|
USDJPY
| Vols continue to remain soft in a quiet session. Spot trades lower towards yesterdays lows
|
| Seeing a few bids for 1m area upside strikes.
|
AUDUSD
| Front end vols continue to see selling pressure. The 1 week traded to 12.7 in Asia, and risk
|
| reversals are better bid so would expect more downside bias to prevail.
|
Equities
Equities
| Daily stance
| Comment
|
DAX
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 5691 targeting 5738. S/L below 5675.
|
FTSE100
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 5254 targeting 5299. S/L below 5239.
|
S&P500
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 1090 targeting 1102. S/L below 1085.
|
Nasdaq100
| 0/+
|
|
DJIA
| 0/+
|
|
Futures
Commodities
| Daily Stance
| Comment
|
Gold
| 0
| Look for consolidation between 1,140 and 1,150.
|
Silver
| 0
| N/term res at 18.60, abv targets 18.80 else 18.20-18.60 range
|
Oil (CLZ9)
| 0/-
| Potential for further losses. Res now at 78.65, n/term target 76.60
|
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