During the asian session risk appetite is back in town. Equities going higher and AUD and EUR trading higher vs. USD, JPY and CHF.
Calendar
Economic Data Releases
|
|
Country
| Time (GMT)
| Name
| Expectation
| Prior
| Comment
|
EC
| 10:00
| CPI MoM (OCT)
| 0.3%
| 0.0%
|
|
US
| 13:30
| Retail Sales / Ex Autos MoM (OCT)
| 0.9% / 0.4%
| -1.5% / 0.5%
|
|
US
| 13:30
| Empire Manufacturing (NOV)
| 30.00
| 34.57
|
|
What's going on?
· AUD and EUR going higher, USD, JPY and CHF under pressure. Gold is rallying to 1130. Asian session quite positive with Shanghai Composite up 2.7%.
· Japanese GDP Annualized (3Q) out at 4.8% vs. 2.9%. JPY lower nonetheless. That means that the risk-trade is still on: Buy on dips. It looks like S&P500 will test the 1121 level this week.
· Possible triggers: Retail Sales today. We believe that it could surprise positively.
FX
FX
| Daily stance
| Comment
|
EURUSD
| 0/+
| Expect to test abv 1.50. Buy dips to 1.4935-40 for test of 1.5015, poss 1.5065. Stop below 1.4890.
|
USDJPY
| 0/-
| Expect res at 89.70-90 window to contain rally for retracement to 89.20, poss 88.70. Stop abv 90.35.
|
EURJPY
| 0/-
| Seen capped at 134.20-30 lvl for retracement back to 133.50, then 133.0. Stop abv 134.70.
|
GBPUSD
| 0/-
| N-term res at 1.6735, abv sees 1.6785 else rangebound 1.6640-1.6735.
|
AUDUSD
| 0
| Failure to break 0.9370 risks deeper retracement to 0.9265. A break abv targets 0.9425.
|
FX Options
FX-Options
| Comment
|
EURUSD
| Brokers were looking to sell EURUSD atm and upside overnight to 3-wk on Friday
|
| so likely to see some offers capping spot moves higher.
|
USDJPY
| 1w upside being sold in Asia today with the expiry being a Tokyo holiday vols are already
|
| low but spot only manages a 30 or so point move in Asia prompting pressure on gamma.
|
AUDUSD
| Back end vega remains well bid and curve holds steady but mainly seeing sellers of short
|
| date strikes via spreads into buying 1-2mth area.
|
Equities
Equities
| Daily stance
| Comment
|
DAX
| 0/+
| Buy at the break of 5700 targeting 5740. S/L below 5680.
|
FTSE
| 0/+
| Buy at the break of 5300 targeting 5331. S/L below 5282.
|
S&P500
| 0/+
| Buy at the break of 1094 targeting 1107. S/L below 1090.
|
Nasdaq100
| 0/+
|
|
DJIA
| 0/+
|
|
Futures
Commodities
| Daily Stance
| Comment
|
Gold
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 1120 and target 1131. Stop below 1115.
|
Silver
| 0/+
| Buy at the break of 17.80 and target 18.00. Stop below 17.70.
|
Oil (CLZ9)
| 0/+
| Buy at the break of 77.80 and target 79.50. Stop below 76.80.
|
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