Financial Advisor

History Of Forex



The modern foreign exchange market (fx or forex) began to develop in 1973. However, money has been around in one form or another since the time of Pharaohs. The Babylonians are credited with the first use of paper bills and receipts, but Middle Eastern moneychangers were the first currency traders to exchange coins from one culture to another. During the middle ages, the need for another form of currency besides coins emerged as the method of choice. These paper bills represented transferable third-party payments of funds, making foreign currency exchange trading much easier for merchants and traders and causing these regional economies to flourish.

From the infantile stages of forex during the Middle Ages to WWI, the forex markets were relatively stable and without much speculative activity. After WWI, the forex markets became very volatile and speculative activity increased tenfold. Speculation in the forex market was not looked on as favorable by most institutions and the public in general. The Great Depression and the removal of the gold standard in 1931 created a serious lull in forex market activity. From 1931 until 1973, the forex market went through a series of changes. These changes greatly affected the global economies at the time and speculation in the forex markets during these times was little, if any.
Date Event


1944
Bretton Woods Accord is established to help stabilize the global economy after World War II

1971
Smithsonian Agreement established to allow for greater fluctuation band for currencies

1972
European Joint Float established as the European community tried to move away from its dependency on the U.S. dollar

1973
Smithsonian Agreement and European Joint Float failed and signified the official switch to a free-floating system

1978
Free-floating system officially mandated by the IMF

1993
European Monetary System fails making way for a world-wide free-floating system


The Bretton Woods Accord
The first major transformation, the Bretton Woods Accord, occurred near the end of World War II. The United States, Great Britain and France met at the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference in Bretton Woods, N.H., to design a new global economic direction. The location was chosen because, at the time, the U.S. was the only country unscathed by war. Most of the major European countries were in shambles. Up until WWII, the British pound was the major currency by which most currencies were compared, but that changed when the Nazi campaign against Britain included a major counterfeiting effort against its currency. In fact, WWII vaulted the U.S. dollar, from a failed currency after the stock market crash of 1929 to benchmark currency, by which most other international currencies would become compared and valued. The Bretton Woods Accord was established to create a stable environment, leading to an onslaught of other global economies restoring themselves and their currencies. In fact, the Brettonn Woods Accord established the pegging of currencies and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in hopes of stabilizing the global economic situation.

Major currencies were now pegged to the U.S. dollar, fluctuating by one percent on either side of the set standard against the dollar. When a currency's exchange rate would approach the limit on either side of this standard, the respective central bank would intervene to bring the exchange rate back into the accepted range. At the same time, the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold at a price of $35 per ounce, further bringing stability to other currencies and world forex situation. The Bretton Woods Accord lasted until 1971. Ultimately, it failed, but it did accomplish what its charter set out to do, which was to reestablish economic stability in Europe and Japan. The major reason it failed was because it continued to use a set standard to fix a currency against a smaller market, such as gold.

The Beginning of the free-floating system

After the Bretton Woods Accord came the Smithsonian Agreement in December of 1971. This agreement was similar to the Bretton Woods Accord, but allowed for a greater fluctuation band for the currencies. In 1972, the European community tried to move away from its dependency on the dollar. The European Joint Float was established by West Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxemburg. The agreement was similar to the Bretton Woods Accord, but allowed a greater range of fluctuation in the currency values.

Both agreements suffered mistakes similar to the Bretton Woods Accord and, in 1973, collapsed. The collapses signified the official switch to the free-floating system. This occurred by default, as there were no new agreements to take their place. Governments were now free to peg their currencies, semi-peg or allow them to freely float. In 1978, the free-floating system was officially mandated.

In a final effort to gain independence from the dollar, Europe created the European Monetary System in July of 1978. Like the previous agreements, it failed in 1993, but what followed was an evolution from a combination of the EMS and the Bretton Woods Accord.


Today, the major currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, Euro, British pound, Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, move independently from other currencies. The currencies are traded by anyone who wishes, including an influx of speculation by banks, hedge funds, brokerage houses and individuals. Only on occasion do some of the central banks intervene to move or attempt to move currencies to their desired levels. The underlying factor that drives today's forex markets, however, is supply and demand. The free-floating system is ideal for today's forex markets. The supply and demand of currencies are driven by three factors, including interest rates and interest rate differentials, commodities and global trade. The forex market is the prime market of the world by all which all others can be considered derivatives (like futures and options).


Passive Interest Rate Moves May Confine Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen To Range

As we know it, Japan's economy has been labeled recessionary given its two consecutive quarters of negative strength. July GDP data shows the North American country seeing some relief, expanding 0.7% in that month alone. With these two conditions in minds both monetary authorities are unlikely to react to growth as inflation is only now beginning to retreat. Rate cuts here would only add upward price pressure that these two banks have sought to avoid. As such, yield-gap neutrality may continue for the near future and thus see no changes in relative strength between the Canadian Dollar and the Japanese Yen.






Trading Tip -
Financing the purchase of a currency with the Japanese Yen is generally a riskier endeavor in times of greater volatility. Recent weeks have shown financial market turmoil to be benefiting the Yen as a result. As a precaution, traders may want to wait for volatility before trading this range. In addition to a stop loss, we will look to control risk further by removing any unfilled orders by the end of the week or should spot close above 102.19 prior to our order being filled.
Event Risk for Japan and Canada

Japan - Between Monday and Tuesday the Bank of Japan will announce its decision for their benchmark rate. Consensus forecasts call for no changes as the BoJ continues to find itself in a tight situation where the overnight cost of borrowing is already at 0.50%. Japan's week will be highlighted instead by the minutes from September's central bank meeting. One may see Yen volatility ensue if the minutes reveal a sharper and more urgent tone among the bank's board members. But as oil and goods prices fell through August, we may see that the members had become increasingly dovish on the inflation front. Their monthly report will probably suggest the economy is indeed in a recession and will probably highlight the easing inflation. The country's Leading Index has been generally known to precede large deviations from trending economic activity. The metric which has been on trending decline since May of 2006 might continue to fall as spillover from the US financial crisis continues to impact global financial markets.

Canada - Of the two major events on Canada's calendar this week labor data will be of most concern. With Canada's economy depending so much on export and oil driven growth, the fall in crude may deteriorate the country's overall prospects. Despite commodity decline, GDP in July alone grew 0.7% for the North American country. If it indeed does find itself trending upward through August and September, labor data may come in stronger than expected. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, a volatile metric measuring the monthly change in purchases made by corporate executives, is expected to decline for a third straight month in September. Implications in the figure's actual outcome will be limited as Loonie traders take labor data as the paramount concern this week.



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