The pattern of trading for the past 10 months has been for selling interest to cap any improvements above 115.00 and this signal dominated last week’s sell strategy. This was successful with an initial loss of almost 800 pips to reach a new low for the year. However, recovery on Thursday and the strongest gain in 10 months on Friday has once again brought prices back to test the 115.00 level. As a result signals for sentiment this week are cautious but on balance. The forecast is for continued buying while above 112.45. Targets are for gains to retest March’s high at 116.00, then 117.00 and 118.24, a 38% recovery to the 2009 -2010 bear market ( 138.74-105.43).
Exact risk to this forecast is not clear but most likely selling back through 112.45 should be a bearish signal that the improvement is stalling and sentiment is deteriorating again back to 110.52, Friday’s low, then potentially back to last week’s 106.60 bottom.
Exact risk to this forecast is not clear but most likely selling back through 112.45 should be a bearish signal that the improvement is stalling and sentiment is deteriorating again back to 110.52, Friday’s low, then potentially back to last week’s 106.60 bottom.
No comments:
Post a Comment