Euro dipped overnight against dollar after Moody's downgraded Portugal's credit rating on concern that it will eventually see a second bailout following Greece. But so far, loss is limited as markets are awaiting tomorrow's ECB rate decision. Investors remain indecisive on EUR/USD and that's clearly manifested in the triangle pattern that started since May. On the one hand, the common currency is being supported by expectation of further rate hike from ECB, which a 25bps hike this week should be a done deal. On the other hand, on-going worry on the sovereign debt crisis in peripheral Eurozone countries is limiting any rally attempt of Euro. Overall, we'd believe that Euro's fate would very much depend on whether ECB Trichet would hint that the 25bps per quarter tightening cycle would continue or stop ahead.
Moody's cut the credit rating of Portugal to Ba2, 2 levels below investment grade, as there is 'growing risk that Portugal will require a second round of official financing before it can return to the private market' and the country may not be able to fully achieve its target of budget cut. Involvement of private investors in a new bailout plan for Greece will likely make the EU set the same pre-conditions in Portugal's rescue plan. According to the rating agency, 'that's very significant because not only does it affect current investors, but it is likely to discourage new private sector lending going forward, and therefore reduce the likelihood that a country like Portugal will be able to regain access to the capital markets at a sustainable cost'. Portugal is set to sell as much as EUR 1b of bills maturing in October and the result could trigger some volatility in the markets.
Dollar remains pressured by persistency in risk appetite in spite of the Portugal news. DOW was steady overnight and closed just -0.1% down. Asian equities are mixed with Nikkei up 110 pts. Main pressure on the greenback comes from commodities. Gold's break of 1500 level argues that recent price actions from 1577.9 high are developing into sideway consolidations rather than deep correction. Crude oil also managed extend recent rebound and is heading back to 100 psychological level. Fate of the dollar would very much depend on Friday's Non-farm payroll report and tomorrow's ADP employment should also trigger much interim volatility.
Dollar index recovers mildly this week after dipping to 74.13 but over all outlook remains bearish and another decline is still in favor. Recent price actions from 72.69 are merely consolidations in the larger down trend as the index is still kept below the falling trend line from 88.70. We'd expect another fall in near term to 73.50 support and break there will firm this bearish case. That is, the down trend from 88.70 should extend through 72.69 low towards 70.70 all time low.
XAU/EUR rebounded strongly from 1021.2 as the boost from Greece resolution faded and as gold regained strength broadly. A near term bottom is formed and stronger rebound could be seen back towards 1088.1 high. But after all, beware that XAU/EUR is forming a diagonal triangle since 886.21 with rise from 1021.2 as the last leg. Hence, a medium term reversal is expected after a test on 1088.1 high. And, that could coincide with the eventual triangle breakout in EUR/USD.
On the data front, UK BRC shop price index rose 2.9% yoy in June. Japan leading indicator improved to 99.8 in May. Looking ahead, Eurozone GDP finalized reading is expected to be unrevised at 0.8% qoq in Q1. German factory orders are expected to drop -0.5% mom in May. From US, main focus will be on ISM services which is expected to drop to 53.6 in June.
No comments:
Post a Comment