Forex Weekly Outlook – July 18-22

US Housing data, Euro-Zone German ZEW Economic Sentiment and German Ifo Business Climate and US Unemployment claims are among the big market movers this week. Here is an outlook on the major events ahead.

 Last week President Barack Obama pressured congressmen to resolve the impasse over the debt limit and fiscal policy by summoning Congressional leaders to the White House aiming to reach an agreement and present a full scale plan within the next few days. Will the US congress reach a resolution this week?

Apart from the usual events, the beginning of the week will see a reaction to the stress tests published on Friday. Some banks’ stocks might see a “Black Monday” and this may impact the euro.

Let’s Start

1. New Zealand CPI: Sunday, 22:45. CPI gained by 0.8% in the first quarter above the RBNZ’s comfort zone. While some of this will reflect the lagged effect of the Goods and Services Tax last October. Nevertheless the RBNZ does not expect rates to increase until the fourth quarter, even though GDP was great in New Zealand.
2. US TIC Long-Term Purchases: Monday, 13:00. TIC Long-Term Purchases increased in April to $30.6B better than the previous month but still very low due to the Greek bonds affair. A larger increase to $48.4B is predicted.
3. Euro-Zone German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday 9:00. The Greek crisis spoiled German sentiment in April falling from 3.1 to -9.0 when 3.0 drop was predicted by analysts. However the decrease characterizes the financial sector rather than the manufacturing industry gaining some positive readings.  Further drop to -10.9 is expected now.
4. US Building Permits: Tuesday 12:30. Approved building permits increased in May added 0.5M from to the previous month reaching 0.61M above the 0.55M expected. This positive reading indicates increased activity in the market and may also increase home prices. The sale number of building permits is predicted now.
5. Canadian Rate decision: Tuesday, 13:00. The Bank of maintained its benchmark overnight rate at 1% in May 31 however announced in its last rate statement it would closely monitor inflationary pressures to decide upon a possible rate hike however no change is predicted this time.
6. US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. A decrease occurred in sales of existingU.S. homes dropping to a 4.81 million annual rate from 5.00 million in the previous month. 1.8 million Properties under foreclosure lower existing home prices and sluggishness is expected to continue for the time being. An increase to  4.95 million is forecasted.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30.  Initial jobless claims dropped 22,000 to 405,000 last week, much better than the 413,000 anticipated and following 427,000 claims in the week before. The low reading is partially due to fewer layoffs than predicted on the auto industry. A small increase to 406,000 is predicted now.
8. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 14:00. Manufacturing activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region decreased unexpectedly in June to the lowest level since July 2009 plunging to -7.7 from 3.9 points gain in the previous month and contrary to predictions of a rise to 6.8. A rise to 4.6 is forecasted.
9. Euro-Zone German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00. German business confidence unexpectedly grew in June to 114.5 from114.2 in May indicating a possible ending to the debt crisis clouds overshadowing the Euro-Zone in the past months. Analysts expected a drop to 113.4 howeverGermany’s domestic economy is thriving.  A small decrease to 113.7 is forecasted.
10. Canadian inflation data: Friday, 12:30. Core consumer price inflation inCanada increased more than expected in May by 0.5% after gaining 0.2% in April. economists had expected core CPI to rise by 0.2% in May. The rise was led by higher petrol prices. CPI is expected to drop 0.2% and Core rates are expected to be flat this time.