The Aussie rose against the U.S. dollar and the euro on Thursday
despite rising unemployment. At around 5:48 am GMT, the greenback traded
around 0.9732, or 0.94% below its previous close. At the same time, the
euro surrendered 0.51% of its value to stand around $1.3858.
The Aussie has managed to defy the odds and gather strength against the two major currencies despite disappointing jobs market results. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia's unemployment rate increased to 5.1% in July from 4.9% in June. The results came as a surprise to the analysts, who expected the economy to add 13,750 new jobs. Instead, Australia's weakening economy slashed 100 jobs.
Australia has been the star performer among the developed countries
in recent years. In fact, it was the only developed nation to avoid a
recession following the financial markets meltdown. However, the
Australian economy was hit hard by the Queensland floods, which have
created havoc among the communities living there. At the same time, the
floods interrupted mining operations in the area. Australia is abundant
with natural resources and high price levels for a number of commodities
have provided a lot of tailwind for its economy in recent years.
Things might be about to change. The debt crises in the United States
and the Eurozone seem to be feeding on each other and there is
increasing speculation that Europe and North America might be on their
way to a double-dip recession. At the same time, China has to squeeze
its belt ever tighter in its so far futile attempts to control rising
inflation. China is the world's largest consumer of raw materials and an
increasingly important trading partner for commodity exporters such as
Australia. A slowdown in China might in fact be an equally big threat to
the Australian economy as a debt fiasco in the Eurozone and the United
States.
With signs that global demand is faltering, prices of commodities
have started to come down.
Crude oil, which has been trading around $100
for a while, has dropped to low eighties. Presently, crude oil stands
around $82.81, or 1.41% above its previous close. Natural gas has sunk
below the $4 barrier, falling 0.2% to trade around $3.995. At the same
time, copper has rebounded in Thursday's early trading session, having
fallen below the $4 mark as well. At the moment, copper stand around
$4.008, or 2.84% above its previous close. The one exception in the
downward trend for commodities is gold. The yellow metal has briefly
moved past the $1,800 mark, but has retreated since. Currently, the
yellow metal trades around $1,787.35, or 0.18% below its previous close.
With debt woes mounting in the Eurozone and the United States, it seems
only the sky is the limit for the world's most popular safe-haven.
More positive news for the Australian economy came from inflation expectations data. According to the Melbourne University Institute,
consumers expect prices to increase by 2.7% in the next 12 months. In
July, consumers expected prices to rise by 3.4%. The latest reduction in
inflationary expectations might provide some room for the Reserve bank
of Australia to cut its interest rates in an attempt to boost
Australia's ailing economy. The Reserve bank of Australia has a price
target for the country's inflation rate of 2%-3%. Lower interest rates
might be good for the Australian economy. However, it should be bad news
for the Aussie.
ACTION ITEMS:
Bullish:
Traders who believe that Australia's economy, helped by high commodity prices, will remain strong compared to the rest of the developed nations, which should provide some steam for the Aussie, might want to consider the following trades:
Bullish:
Traders who believe that Australia's economy, helped by high commodity prices, will remain strong compared to the rest of the developed nations, which should provide some steam for the Aussie, might want to consider the following trades:
- Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index Total Return ETN (NYSE: DJP) is a long play on commodities. DJP may rise if the prices of commodities increase.
- CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust ETF (NYSE: FXA [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) is a long play on the Aussie. FXA may rise if the Aussie appreciates.
Bearish:
Traders who believe that a double dip recession might push prices of commodities much lower, which should create a lot of headwind for the Aussie, may consider an alternate positions:
Traders who believe that a double dip recession might push prices of commodities much lower, which should create a lot of headwind for the Aussie, may consider an alternate positions:
- PowerShares DB Commodity Short ETN (NYSE: DDP) is a short play on commodities. DDP may rise if the prices of commodities decline.
- ETFS Short Australian Dollar Long US Dollar ETC ETF (SAD) is a short play on the Aussie. SAD may rise if the Aussie depreciates.
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