Our bearish call for USDCHF sentiment for last week was confirmed with
aggressive selling that took it more than 5 big figures lower – to new
all-time lows. But these lows were not maintained. In fact, all initial
losses were powerfully reversed and although this rally was inspired by
non-technical factors, the formation of a Bullish Hammer on weekly
candle charts indicates scope for gains to continue.
In view of this our call is Bullish above 0.7486, although exact risk levels in such volatile conditions are hard to gauge. The immediate objective is 0.7836, the open from August 2nd, with a move beyond that point targeting 0.7954, the 2-week peak, then 0.8119, the open from 3 weeks ago.
The risk to this call is that the improvement was more temporary and limited than currently assessed and this would be signalled by a move below 0.7486, 38% pullback of Thursday’s net rise. Prices and sentiment should then fall to 0.7265, that day’s open, or even 0.7181, Wednesday’s base.
In view of this our call is Bullish above 0.7486, although exact risk levels in such volatile conditions are hard to gauge. The immediate objective is 0.7836, the open from August 2nd, with a move beyond that point targeting 0.7954, the 2-week peak, then 0.8119, the open from 3 weeks ago.
The risk to this call is that the improvement was more temporary and limited than currently assessed and this would be signalled by a move below 0.7486, 38% pullback of Thursday’s net rise. Prices and sentiment should then fall to 0.7265, that day’s open, or even 0.7181, Wednesday’s base.
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