USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9171; (P) 0.9210; (R1) 0.9270;
USD/CHF's break of 0.9261 resistance suggests that recent rally has
resumed and intraday bias is back on the upside for 161.8% projection of
0.7065 to 0.8246 from 0.7710 at 0.9621 next. On the downside, below
0.9146 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations.
But after all, break of 0.8917 is needed to confirm short term topping.
Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in near term.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 1.1730 is already
completed at 1.7065. But there is no indication of long term reversal
yet. Rebound from 0.7065 is treated as part of a medium term
consolidation pattern. Such rebound would possibly extend to
0.9916/1.1730 resistance zone. But strong resistance should be seen
there and bring reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7710 is needed to
indicate completion of the rebound from 0.7065. Otherwise, we'll stay
near term bullish in the pair for the moment.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3276; (P) 1.3329 (R1) 1.3399;
EUR/USD's recovery from 1.3145 is still in progress and might extend
further to 4 hours 55EMA (now at 1.3434) and above. But still, note that
break of 1.3689 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming.
Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. Below 1.3145 will target 161.8%
projection of 1.4939 to 1.3969 from 1.4548 at 1.2979, which is close to
1.3 psychological level.
In the bigger picture, current development indicates that medium term
rise from 1.1875 has completed with three waves up to 1.4939 already.
That also suggests that it's merely part of the consolidation pattern
that started back in 2008 at 1.6039. Further decline would now be seen
to 1.2873 support first and break will target 1.1875 and below. On the
upside, above 1.4548, resistance is needed to confirm completion of the
fall from 1.4939 or we'll stay bearish in EUR/USD.
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8595; (P) 0.8622; (R1) 0.8656;
EUR/GBP's recovery from 0.8529 might extend further as long as 0.8584
minor support holds. But upside should be limited below 0.8795
resistance and bring an eventual downside breakout. Below 0.8584 will
turn bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8529 support will
confirm resumption of recent fall from 0.9083 and target 100% projection
of 0.8884 to 0.8529 from 0.8795 at 0.8440 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008) should be
unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The
first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. Second leg
should also be finished at 0.9083. Fall from 0.9083 is treated as the
third leg and should now target 0.8067 first and possibly further to
61.8% projection of 0.9799 to 0.8067 from 0.9083 at 0.8013 (which is
closes to 0.8 psychological level). Nevertheless, we'd expect strong
support from 0.7693/8186 support zone to contain downside to finish off
the consolidation. On the upside, break of 0.8884 resistance is needed
to invalidate this view or we'll stay bearish now.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
AUD/USD's rebound from 0.9387 extends further to as high as 0.9726 so
far today The break of 0.9672 minor resistance affirms the case that a
short term bottom is at least formed after drawing support from 0.9404
key medium term level, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD.
Intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise should be seen to
0.9984 resistance next. Break will target upper channel resistance (now
at 1.0478). On the downside, below 0.9621 minor support will turn bias
neutral. But break of 0.9387 support is needed to confirm fall
resumption. Otherwise, we'll now favor more rebound ahead in near term.
In the bigger picture, focus remains on 0.9404 key support level. As
long as this support holds, price actions from 1.1079 is treated as a
correction, or part of a consolidation pattern to the up trend from
0.6008 only. And, in such case, AUD/USD should still made another high
above 1.1079 before forming an important top. However, sustained break
of 0.9404 will indicate that rise from 0.6008 is already finished and
would possibly bring deeper fall towards 61.8% retracement of 0.6006 to
1.1079 at 0.7945.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0344; (P) 1.0458; (R1) 1.0519;
USD/CAD's fall from 1.0656 extends further to as low as 1.0394 so
far. The break of 1.0431 minor resistance indicates that a short term
top is formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD after
missing 161.8% projection of 0.9406 to 1.0009 from 0.9725 at 1.0701.
Intraday bias is mildly on the downside and deeper decline would be seen
to 38.2% retracement of 0.9725 to 1.0656 at 1.0300 and possibly below.
But we'd expect strong support from 50% retracement at 1.0191 to contain
downside and bring rebound. More consolidations would be seen below
1.0656 would be seen before rally from 0.9406 resumes towards 1.0803
medium term fibonacci level.
In the bigger picture, sustained trading above 55 weeks EMA affirms
the case that whole down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 has finished at
0.9406 on bullish convergence condition in weekly. Current rally from
0.9406 should now target 1.0851 resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.3063
to 0.9406 at 1.0803). Break there will extend the rebound to 61.8%
retracement 1.1666 and above. On the downside, break of 1.0009 support
is needed indicate completion of the rally from 0.9406. Otherwise, we'll
stay bullish in USD/CAD.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5406; (P) 1.5449; (R1) 1.5505;
GBP/USD is staying in tight range above 1.5340 temporary low and
intraday bias remains neutral. Consolidation from 1.5327 might still be
in progress and stronger recovery cannot be ruled out. But even in that
case, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6618 to
1.5327 at 1.5820 and bring fall resumption eventually. On the downside,,
decisive break of 1.5327 will confirm resumption of recent fall from
1.6746 and should target 161.8% projection of 1.6746 to 1.5780 from
1.6618 at 1.5055 next
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.4229, which is treated as the
third leg of consolidation from 1.3503 (2008 low) should be finished at
1.6746 after GBP/USD completed a head and shoulder top reversal pattern
(ls: 1.6298, h: 1.6746, rs: 1.6618). Fall from 1.6746 could be the
fourth leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.3503 (2008 low) or
resuming long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high). In either case,
retest of 1.4229 resistance should be seen. Break of 1.4229 will bolster
the down trend resumption case and would possibly push GBP/USD through
1.3503 low. On the upside, break of 1.6618 resistance is needed to
invalidate this view. Or we'll now stay cautiously bearish in GBP/USD.
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