IMF report dictates direction – USD still over-valued, EUR above equilibrium and Yuan significantly under-valued
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
- CA Oct Unemployment out at 8.6% vs. 8.5% expected and 8.4% prior
- US Oct Non-farm Payrolls out at -190k vs. -175k expected and revised -219k prior
- US Oct Unemployment Rate out at 10.2% vs. 9.9% expected and 9.8% prior
- US Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings out at 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y vs. +0.1%/2.2% expected and +0.1%/2.5% prior
- US Oct. Avg. Weekly Hours out at 33.0 vs. 33.1 expected and 33.0 prior
- US Sep. Wholesale Inventories out at -0.9% vs. -1.0% expected and -1.3% prior
- US Sep. Consumer Credit out at -$14.8b vs. -$10.0b expected and -$9.9b prior
- NZ Oct. QV House prices out at +0.2% y/y vs. -1.1% prior
- AU ANZ Oct Job Advertisements out at -1.7% m/m vs. +4.4% prior
- AU Sep. Home Loans out at 5.1% vs. 3.0% expected and revised 4.0% prior
- AU Sep. Investment lending out at -0.1% vs. revised +8.3% prior
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
(All times GMT)
- GE Trade Data (0700)
- EU Sentix Investor Confidence (0930)
- GE Industrial Production (1100)
- CA Housing Starts (1315)
- US Employment Trend Index (1500)
Market Comments:
The major focus into the end of last week was the US non-farm payroll and unemployment data. The data on the headline was worse than expected with the number of non-farm jobs lost coming in at 190k versus an expected 175k but was still better than previous month, even after a strong positive revision to that month’s data of +44k. It was the unemployment headlines that stole the headlines though, if not the market reaction, with the rate ballooning to 10.2%, far worse that the 9.9% expected and in double digits for the first time since mid-1983. It was also noted with disappointment that the average weekly hours remained at an all-time low of 33.0 hours/week.
The market’s reaction initially conformed to conventional thinking with the USD edging higher and Wall St looking for a shaky open. However, the strong upward revisions resulted in bears being a touch more hesitant and Wall St finished the day in the black for a 3.2% gain on the week. The employment situation in Canada was not inspiring either, with their unemployment rate jumping to 8.6% from 8.4% and this weighed on the CAD, causing a 100-point spike against the dollar, also not helped by a further slide in oil prices. Gold touched a fresh all-time high just above 1,100 and this helped the commodity currencies to hold steady. USDJPY slid below the 90.0 mark as US yields edged lower following the disappointing headlines for the US data.
The G-20 meeting at the weekend contained little for the markets to latch onto other than a pledge to keep stimulus measures in place, acknowledging that the global economic recovery is still in a fragile state with high unemployment a particular worry. A detailed timetable was presented for work on global imbalances but debate only went as far as saying “flexible exchange rates” (ie China) would be helpful. British PM Brown attempted to drum up support for his financial transaction tax but found few followers. US treasury secretary Geithner stated in an interview that such a tax was “not something we are prepared to support” and, as PM Brown himself said that unless all financial centres supported the plan, it was a non-starter.
With markets receiving little input from the G-20, it was left to an IMF report to provide the sentiment at the Asian open. The report noted that the USD is being used for “carry trade” funding and, despite its slide of late which brought it closer to medium-term equilibrium, may still be overvalued. It added the EUR was on the strong side of its equilibrium while the Yuan was “significantly undervalued” from a medium-term perspective.
This gave risk bulls/USD bears the green light and we saw gradual USD weakness during the session. The USD down-move was given additional impetus when Fonterra, the New Zealand cooperative of dairy farmers, revised its payout for 2010 higher to NZ$6.10/kilo from NZ$5.10 previously amid firmer milk powder prices. This helped the NZD score further gains, building on the USD negative environment and we hit a 1-1/2 week high.
The start of the week is quite barren on the data front with the European session confined to German trade data and industrial production. Watch out for further developments in the Kraft/Cadbury takeover talks. Weekend press suggests this could revert into a more hostile environment and GBP is getting an additional lift from this talk. The deadline for the deal to be struck is supposed to be around 5pm London time. The North American session is quiet on the data front with only Canadian housing starts on the agenda.
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