Everyone who was long the Everything Up vs. the USD trade in recent weeks is trying to pick up the pieces after the wreckage of late last week. Will the bounce-back attempt extend or do we see EURUSD at 1.4000 this week?
Greece rumors
Late Friday, Der Spiegel’s article on sources indicating an imminent Greek exit from the EuroZone and devaluation turbocharged the already heavy Euro declines and the single currency ended the day in a climax of selling, even as official denials of the article’s contents were widely available from multiple sources, giving some evidence that a lot of the action was due to a very crowded exits as “The move generated the move”. Over the weekend, there has been a further back and forth on Greece, not only over the extreme scenario of an exit/devaluation, but also on the degree to which Greece and EU representatives are reviewing the country’s current bailout program for ways to reduce the fiscal burden on the country.
Late Friday, Der Spiegel’s article on sources indicating an imminent Greek exit from the EuroZone and devaluation turbocharged the already heavy Euro declines and the single currency ended the day in a climax of selling, even as official denials of the article’s contents were widely available from multiple sources, giving some evidence that a lot of the action was due to a very crowded exits as “The move generated the move”. Over the weekend, there has been a further back and forth on Greece, not only over the extreme scenario of an exit/devaluation, but also on the degree to which Greece and EU representatives are reviewing the country’s current bailout program for ways to reduce the fiscal burden on the country.
It appears a deal is in the pipeline, because as a Bloomberg article states “3 years of recession, higher borrowing costs and weak tax revenue have more than offset the spending cuts required (by the rescue deal)”. We all know that Greece will restructure – the question is one of when and not if and the question is how big a haircut the Greek debt holders will take. While the Euro managed to bounce after all of the carnage late last week, if we look over at how the market is pricing wider contagion risk, Spanish/German bond spreads have widened a bit in today’s trade. As well, the noise level on an eventual Ireland debt restructuring is increasing in recent days. How long can you extend and pretend, Eurozone? And how are you going to recapitalize the banks without printing money, ECB? A couple of very important questions, methinks.
Chart: EURUSD
The sheer magnitude of the sell-off late last week in the Euro has to be giving trend models and Euro bulls pause here as the market may look to deleverage further from this trade. This will depend on the news flow out of Europe and further developments in commodities and risk appetite. Could we see a test of the 1.4000 area already this week on further nervousness?
The sheer magnitude of the sell-off late last week in the Euro has to be giving trend models and Euro bulls pause here as the market may look to deleverage further from this trade. This will depend on the news flow out of Europe and further developments in commodities and risk appetite. Could we see a test of the 1.4000 area already this week on further nervousness?
UK Housing Data
According to the latest Halifax house price data, the decline in UK house prices accelerated over the last month, and a look at the index in the bigger picture suggests prices are edging. One of the guru economists a year or more ago said that the UK housing bubble was the only bubble in history – so far – that hasn’t full reverted back to trend. The massive drop in interest rates during the global financial crisis, of course, did boost house prices as large long term loans became vastly cheaper when financed on an adjustable rate basis. But this effect has long ago faded and with home prices still so high in the UK and buy to rent yields so poor and the economy weakening again, one wonders if that reversion to the trend is in the works in the next couple of years.
According to the latest Halifax house price data, the decline in UK house prices accelerated over the last month, and a look at the index in the bigger picture suggests prices are edging. One of the guru economists a year or more ago said that the UK housing bubble was the only bubble in history – so far – that hasn’t full reverted back to trend. The massive drop in interest rates during the global financial crisis, of course, did boost house prices as large long term loans became vastly cheaper when financed on an adjustable rate basis. But this effect has long ago faded and with home prices still so high in the UK and buy to rent yields so poor and the economy weakening again, one wonders if that reversion to the trend is in the works in the next couple of years.
Chart: AUDUSD
With commodities at the center of the volatility across markets last week, it is more than a bit odd to see AUD holding up so well in some of the crosses and if volatility and risk aversion continue to pick up this week, AUD will have an awfully hard time avoiding negative implications. The technical focus for the moment is the 1.0580/1.0600 area on the recent sell-off. If it gives way, a straight shot to 1.0260 or lower could open up rather quickly.
With commodities at the center of the volatility across markets last week, it is more than a bit odd to see AUD holding up so well in some of the crosses and if volatility and risk aversion continue to pick up this week, AUD will have an awfully hard time avoiding negative implications. The technical focus for the moment is the 1.0580/1.0600 area on the recent sell-off. If it gives way, a straight shot to 1.0260 or lower could open up rather quickly.
Looking ahead
This week, watch the news flow on a budget deal from the US – as the two sides appear far more willing to deal now than they did during the last budget spat as the nation appears set for a dramatic referendum on the future of entitlement spending and national spending priorities (and whether recycled trickle down Reaganomics will capture the national imagination once again) in the 2012 US presidential election campaign.
This week, watch the news flow on a budget deal from the US – as the two sides appear far more willing to deal now than they did during the last budget spat as the nation appears set for a dramatic referendum on the future of entitlement spending and national spending priorities (and whether recycled trickle down Reaganomics will capture the national imagination once again) in the 2012 US presidential election campaign.
Today marks the beginning of the US/China strategic dialog talks and it will be interesting to watch the tone of these talks considering the recent crackdown by the Chinese regime on free speech and "dissidents" of all stripes. There have already been a couple of exchanges on this front and from a P.R. standpoint, the US can't say nothing on the issue this week.
The economic calendar this week is a bit quieter this week, though we still have a number of interesting event risks. Wednesday, we have the UK BoE quarterly Inflation report, and the US and Canada March trade balance reports. A number of Fed officials are also out reporting that day, including voting member Kocherlakota.
Early Thursday we have the Australia April employment report. The last two days of the week are heavy on the US calendar, with April Retail Sales and PPI data and weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and the April CPI and preliminary May University of Michigan confidence survey on Friday. Ahead of that, the only interesting data point is the Mar. Trade Balance set for release tomorrow.
Economic Data Highlights
- Australia Apr. NAB Business Conditions out at 5 vs. 9 in Mar.
- Australia Apr. NAB Business Confidence out at 7 vs. 9 in Mar.
- Germany Mar. Trade Balance out at +18.9B vs. 11.8B expected and 11.9B in Feb.
- UK Apr. Halifax House Prices fell -1.4% MoM and -3.7% YoY vs. +0.1%/-3.0% expected, respectively and vs. -2.9% YoY in Mar.
- EuroZone Sentix Investor Confidence out at 10.9 vs. 13.8 expected and 14.2 in Apr.
- Canada Apr. Housing Starts out at 179k vs. 184k expected and 184.7k in Mar.
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- New Zealand Credit Card Spending (2245)
- UK Apr. BRC Like-for-like Sales (2301)
- New Zealand Apr. QV House Prices (0000)
- Australia Mar. Trade Balance (0130)
- China Apr. Trade Balance (0200)
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