The Australian dollar took the center stage this morning as aussie
surged above previous high of 1.1012 to a fresh 29-year high of 1.1063
after the release of higher-than-expected Australian inflation data, Q2
CPI came in at 0.9% q/q and 3.6% y/y versus the forecast of 0.7% y/y and
3.4% y/y respectively, closely watched trimmed mean and weighted median
numbers from RBA were also higher than market consensus. Traders were
selling the greenback across the board anyway and aussie became an
obvious choice, with the figure came in well above the inflation target
of Reserve Bank of Australia, economists see the central bank may not
cut rates as early as previously anticipated. Some offers at 1.1050 were
absorbed but more offers from big Australian names are reported at
1.1080 and 1.1100 with bids from various parties tipped at 1.1000-10 and
also 1.0950 with stops building up below 1.0950 and 1.0930.
As there wasn't any solid progress in the debt negotiations between
the Democratic and Republican leaders, the greenback remained sold
everywhere, kiwi rose to a record high of 0.8765, euro extended gain to
3-week high of 1.4537, cable edged higher to an over 1-month high of
1.6440 and yen rose again this morning to a 4-month high against the
greenback at 77.70. Traders paid little attention to comments from BOJ's
Kamezaki who warned that there are strong uncertainties for the global
economic outlook, he is very worried that firms are shifting abroad and
power shortages together with the yen rise could worsen current
situation. The committee member reiterated that the Bank of Japan is
getting more and more wary about the yen's strength, however, his
remarks did little help to the greenback the USD/JPY is still trading
near the 4-month low. We heard quite a number of option barriers located
in 77's, including 77.50, 77.30 and 77.00, there are also rumors of
bids from Kampo and postal funds around 77.70-77.50 area. On the upside,
offers are tipped at 78.00 with stops placed above 78.20 and then
78.50-60.
Although there were news that Standard & Poor's are considering
to downgrade Greece credit ratings, little damage was done on the single
currency as traders just see this as following what Moody's did earlier
this week, euro are still trading with a firm undertone after testing
an over 3-week high of 1.4537. At the moment, offers are noted from
1.4530 up to 1.4550 but buying interests from Asian CBs are lined up
at1.4480-90 with some stops below 1.4480 and mixture of bids and stops
is located at 1.4440-50.
The British pound eased a little bid after yesterday's rally caused
by the release of not as bad as expected UK GDP data, no major economic
data is scheduled today, with only the CBI Trends total orders of July
at 10:00GMT. Order books are relatively thin with some offers reported
at 1.6450 and 1.6500 whilst bids are tipped from 1.6380 down to 1.6350
with stops placed below the latter level.
Swissy re-visited 0.8000 level today on safe-haven flows after
hitting record high of 0.7997 against the greenback, stops below 0.7990
are now in focus, however, option defensive bids are seen at 0.7960-70
with more stops planted below 0.7950. On the upside, offers are located
at 0.8030-50 area with stops remain above 0.8080 and 0.8140-50, some
traders are awaiting the release of Swiss KOF leading indicators at
09:30GMT.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0861; (P) 1.0915; (R1) 1.1009;
AUD/USD jumps to as high as 1.1062, making a new record. The break of
1.1011 resistance confirms up trend resumption. Intraday bias remains
on the upside and further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection
0.9703 to 1.1011 at 1.0390 at 1.1198 next. On the downside, below 1.0933
minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But
retreat should be contained above 1.0789 resistance turned support and
bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from
2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. Such up trend should
now target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462. On
the downside, Break of 1.0390 support is needed to be the first signal
of medium term reversal. Or we'll stay bullish in AUD/USD.
No comments:
Post a Comment