Asia saw a busier day on the macroeconomic front Thursday, and though
there were arguments for both risk-on and risk-off, currencies remained
at the top of their ranges.
For the pro-risk brigade, Australia’s employment data was a stormer with 20.4k jobs added in September, more than the 10.0k expected and more than compensating for the revised 10.5k jobs lost in August and halting a 2-month declining streak. Jobs gains were spread almost evenly between full-time and part-time workers and an unchanged participation rate of 65.6% was enough to tilt the unemployment rate a tad lower to 5.2% from 5.3%. Seen as a solid number, the AUD rocketed higher across the board with AUDUSD reaching 3-week highs.
After we had settled at higher levels, the China trade data was released and slightly disappointed. The trade surplus shrunk for the second successive month, declining to +$14.51 bln from +$17.76 bln with a drop in exports seen as the main culprit. Exports grew “only” 17.1% y/y and, perhaps more disappointingly, growth in imports fell to +20.9% y/y after recording 30.2% y/y in August. This took some of the shine off the AUD’s gains and AUDUSD retreated sub-1.02 again.
During the session we had additional dovish comments from BOE’s Bean who felt the outlook for the UK economy had worsened in the past 3-4 months which, if prolonged, would need an additional round of QE. He was of the opinion that inflation will cool in 2012, just in time for the Olympics! His comments on the economy echoed those we heard from BOE’s Dale who expressed concern about UK growth prospects for the rest of the year. GBP traded sidelined for most of the Asian session though.
The broader risk-on trade had extended overnight to the detriment of the greenback with a number of events forcing the EUR squeeze higher. Slovakian leaders said a second EFSF vote was likely by week-end and expected to pass while the EU Commission offered a framework for a European bank recapitalization plan. Euro-zone data was also impressive with industrial production up 1.2% m/m, 5.3% y/y, well above forecasts and higher than the previous month. EURUSD squeezed up to 1.3830+, one-month highs, before finding some resistance.
Economic Data Highlights
For the pro-risk brigade, Australia’s employment data was a stormer with 20.4k jobs added in September, more than the 10.0k expected and more than compensating for the revised 10.5k jobs lost in August and halting a 2-month declining streak. Jobs gains were spread almost evenly between full-time and part-time workers and an unchanged participation rate of 65.6% was enough to tilt the unemployment rate a tad lower to 5.2% from 5.3%. Seen as a solid number, the AUD rocketed higher across the board with AUDUSD reaching 3-week highs.
After we had settled at higher levels, the China trade data was released and slightly disappointed. The trade surplus shrunk for the second successive month, declining to +$14.51 bln from +$17.76 bln with a drop in exports seen as the main culprit. Exports grew “only” 17.1% y/y and, perhaps more disappointingly, growth in imports fell to +20.9% y/y after recording 30.2% y/y in August. This took some of the shine off the AUD’s gains and AUDUSD retreated sub-1.02 again.
During the session we had additional dovish comments from BOE’s Bean who felt the outlook for the UK economy had worsened in the past 3-4 months which, if prolonged, would need an additional round of QE. He was of the opinion that inflation will cool in 2012, just in time for the Olympics! His comments on the economy echoed those we heard from BOE’s Dale who expressed concern about UK growth prospects for the rest of the year. GBP traded sidelined for most of the Asian session though.
The broader risk-on trade had extended overnight to the detriment of the greenback with a number of events forcing the EUR squeeze higher. Slovakian leaders said a second EFSF vote was likely by week-end and expected to pass while the EU Commission offered a framework for a European bank recapitalization plan. Euro-zone data was also impressive with industrial production up 1.2% m/m, 5.3% y/y, well above forecasts and higher than the previous month. EURUSD squeezed up to 1.3830+, one-month highs, before finding some resistance.
Economic Data Highlights
- CA Aug. New Housing Price Index out at +0.1% m/m, +2.3% y/y, both as expected and unchanged from prior
- US Aug. JOLTs Job Openings out at 3,056 vs. revised 3,213 prior
- NZ Sep. Business PMI out at 50.8 vs. revised 52.7 prior
- JP Sep. Bank Lending out at -0.3%y/y vs. -0.5% expected and -0.5% prior
- JP Aug. Tertiary Industry Index out at -0.2%m/m vs. -0.3% expected and revised -0.3% prior
- AU Oct. Consumer Inflation Expectation out at 3.1% vs. 2.8% prior
- AU Sep. Employment Change out at +20.4k vs. 10.0k expected and revised -10.5k prior
- AU Sep. Unemployment Rate out at 5.2% vs. 5.3% expected and 5.3% prior
- China Sep. Trade Balance out at +$14.51b vs. +$16.3b expected and +$17.76b prior
- China Sep. Exports out at +17.1% y/y vs. +20.5% expected and +24.5% prior
- China Sep. Imports out at +20.9% y/y vs. 24.2% expected and 30.2% prior
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights
(All Times GMT)
(All Times GMT)
- GE CPI (0600)
- Swiss PPI (0715)
- Sweden Unemployment rate (0800)
- UK Trade Balance (0830)
- CA Int’l Merchandise Trade (1230)
- US Trade Balance (1230)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (1230)
- US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (1345)
- US Fed’s Kocherlakota to speak (1830)
No comments:
Post a Comment