Financial Advisor

Don't Fool Yourself: America Is "Now a Communist Nation"


Steve's note: My friend Porter Stansberry is the smartest guy I know. Earlier this week, he told a crowd of hundreds at the Stansberry Alliance Conference, "Nearly every article of the Communist Manifesto has been adopted by the government of the United States."

I hate to think he might be right. Unfortunately, he usually is. While you may disagree with him, you should still consider what he has to say...

Don't Fool Yourself: America Is "Now a Communist Nation"
By Porter Stansberry

At last year's Alliance Conference, I urged folks to buy stocks – vehemently... It was the most bullish I've been in my entire life. But now I feel the opposite way. When the facts change, I change my mind. I never thought we'd see the government running $2 trillion deficits, taking over health care, owning all the banks...

The stock market seems to believe the government can solve all of our problems with paper money and bureaucratic mandates. My bet is, it doesn't work... at least, not for long. And given the choice between earning less than 1% in the bank and buying gold at $1,100 per ounce, I'm buying gold.

Watching the government rack up debts that will be impossible to repay while narrowing the tax base (at least 50% of Americans pay zero federal income tax) at the same time is very scary. Not only has the government gone mad with spending and corruption, but it also expects about 10% of the population to pay for essentially all the costs. The math simply doesn't add up: 10% of the population can't (and won't) pay for all of the costs of a socialist federal government. 


This has nothing to do with traditional party politics. Both parties have grown the size and responsibilities of government. Both parties have added to the national debt. And both parties support the narrowing of the tax base – because that's what makes good political sense in an unlimited democracy... Promise the voters they can live at the expense of their neighbors and future generations.

Unfortunately, we know from history this kind of political system can't last for long – for lots of reasons. One important reason: The rich will leave. Or they will stop working. They will hide their incomes or only invest in tax-protected vehicles. And we know the political response will be tougher laws on emigration, taxation, more money printing, and – eventually – capital controls that make it impossible to protect yourself from a massive currency devaluation.

That's the script. We've watched the same things happen dozens of times around the world following World War II and the introduction of a global paper currency standard, which allowed governments to run huge deficits and finance their activities through inflation and devaluation. We just never thought we'd see it happen here.

Today, the idea of leaving America in search of freedom and financial security seems like absolute madness. But it won't for long. And by the time most people wake up to the very real threats to their standard of living, it will be too late.

The trends I'm talking about are cultural and fiscal, not ideological. Read the original Communist Manifesto. It's nearly identical to today's government policies. Any politician who tries to oppose the landslide of modern entitlements is immediately labeled a kook and is unelectable.

Whether you think we ought to have free health care and drugs for retirees, more military spending than the rest of the world combined, a bankrupt retirement scheme based on government debt, government guarantees for the banks, etc. doesn't matter to me. I'm not interested in pie-in-the-sky ideas about how the world should work. I write about how the world does work.

And I can tell you this with 100% accuracy: You cannot support the world's reserve currency when you are the world's largest debtor, when you plan to finance annual deficits exceeding $2 trillion with progressive income taxes and money printing. Our economy is a charade. And when it falls apart, the consequences will be devastating.

Regards, 

Porter Stansberry

Risk markets trying to recover from Dubai aftershocks. RBA in focus tonight - to hike or not to hike?

An interesting week of data ahead with major US ISM surveys and employment report on Friday.



MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

  • New Zealand Oct. Building Permits rose 11.7% MoM
  • Japan Nov. Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI out at 52.3 vs. 54.3 in Oct.
  • Japan Oct. Industrial Production rose 2.5% MoM and fell -13.4% YoY vs. +0.5%/-15.1% expected, respectively
  • Australia Oct. New Home Sales fell -6.0% MoM
  • UK Nov. GfK Consumer Confidence fell to -17 vs. -11 expected and -13 in Oct.
  • UK Nov. Hometrack Housing Survey rose 0.2% MoM and fell -2.9 YoY
  • Japan Oct. Labor Cash Earnings fell -1.7% YoY vs. -1.9% expected and -1.6% in Sep.
  • Japan Oct. Housing Starts fell -27.1% YoY vs. -33.5% expected and -37% in Sep.
  • Japan Oct. Construction Orders fell -40.1% YoY vs. -14% in Sep.
  • Norway Oct. Retail Sales rose 2.1% MoM vs. 0.7% expected
  • UK Oct. Mortgage Approvals out at 57.3k vs. 57k expected and 56.2k in Sep.
  • EuroZone Nov. CPI estimate out at +0.6% YoY vs. +0.4% expected
  • Canada Oct. Industrial Product Price fell -0.3% MoM vs. +0.3% expected
  • Canada Oct. Raw Materials Price Index rose 2.5% MoM vs. 3.3% expected
  • Canada Sep. GDP rose +0.4% as expected, but Q3 Quarterly GDP was out at +0.4% annualized, vs. 1.0% expected


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

(All times GMT)
  • US Nov. Chicago PMI (1445)
  • US Nov. Milwaukee NAPM (1500)
  • US Fed's Greenlee to Speak (1600)
  • Australia Nov. AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (2230)
  • Australia Oct. Building Approvals (0030)
  • China Nov. PMI Manufacturing (0100)
  • Australia RBA Cash Target (0330)

Market Comments:
Risk appetite is making a tepid comeback today, which is also the last day of the month and therefore subject to the usual end of month fixing moves based on realignment of portfolios due to the month's fluctuation in asset prices. This could easily cause one off swings in prices in the currency market today that don't necessarily serve as reliable technical indicators of the action to come. The US bond market moved quite a bit over the month, and equities were much higher on the month as a whole, so end of month flows may be rather heavy today into the fix.
The reality of Dubai vs. the Liquidity Rally
The ugly news from Dubai last week continues to reverberate through global markets this week. A breakdown of where we stand at the moment on the situation:

  • Risk levels are still elevated if we glance over at emerging market currencies and equity markets. Our risk inputs for the Carry Trade Model are nearing a key threshold that represents overall expansion vs. contraction in risk appetite. USD sellers have been emboldened by the seeming stabilization, but if USD weakness is supposed to correlate with risk appetite, then the USD sell-off has been too steep already relative to other indicators
  • News-wise, the UAE is moving to ease the crisis with a liquidity scheme for banks with Dubai debt. But both Abu Dhabi and the Dubai financial authorities are trying to distance themselves from Dubai World (the main culprit in the Dubai real estate hyper-bubble) and the idea that they will make good on all of Dubai World's debt.
  • The question about the degree to which this event could serve as a trigger for a new global crisis is being bandied about. This question is interesting: total Dubai debt is on the order of $80 billion - a drop in the bucket compared to the bailout amounts in play elsewhere. Compare this with the Fed's promise to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage debt. So any wider fallout will have more to do with the fear of fear itself (risk contagion brought about by a contraction in risk appetite and the implications such a move would have on asset prices and emerging market countries dependent on capital inflows) rather than the magnitude of the isolate Dubai problem.
Looking ahead
Last week's crazy action was induced by a relatively exogenous shock from Dubai and came during a holiday period in the US, which probably only served to aggravate volatility. Considering the magnitude of the reaction in the markets, it is clear how quickly the bulls are ready to sprint for the exits at the least sign of trouble and makes one wonder about the durability and conviction of the recovery cycle in asset prices. We would watch emerging market prices and currencies for signs that the market is either getting over the Dubai shock or whether worry is increasing this week. The British pound seems to be a short term proxy for Dubai worries as well, since its banks have the largest exposure to Dubai World debt.

Meanwhile, later this week we have a look at the key US ISM reports and the chain store sales report on Thursday.  There will be intense focus on the ADP employment change Wednesday and jobless claims on Thursday ahead of the actual US employment report on Friday as the market tries to gauge when the US employment trends will finally turn.
Chart: AUDUSD vs. risk and rate spreads
The RBA is very much in focus this evening ahead of the decision on the Cash Target tonight. Last week, a clear majority was looking for a 25-bp hike, but now it appears that the market is 50-50 on the prospect for a hike. AUD was in the vanguard vs. the weak USD for some time, but has now taken a bit of a back seat and fallen vs. the rest of the G-10 after matching a 20-year high recently as the RBA has failed to provide rhetoric sufficiently hawkish to see rate spreads continuing to expand in favor of the Aussie. It is clear from today's chart that the AUD direction is dependent on the RBA's guidance and its affects on rate spreads as well as the degree to which global asset markets - particularly emerging market assets - either continue to correct lower or try to reinvigorate the rally impulse. (In the chart, AUDUSD is shown in white, while the 2-year spread on Australian vs. US rates is shown in yellow, and the MSCI emerging market index is shown in red.)



FED will keep interest rates low during all of 2010

The FOMC minutes showed that they are forecasting 9.5% unemployment rate in 2010. The yield curve shifted lower and by that action it was revealed that monetary policy will remain lax in all of 2010.





What's going on?

Theme Comment
·         Yesterday’s GDP data was basically in line with expectations and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence was better than expected. The FOMC minutes unfortunately showed that the most important economic institution in the world is confused and in completely uncharted territory. E.g. they are forecasting 9.5% unemployment rate in 2010?!? The yield curve immediately shifted lower, since everybody knows that is not going to happen. In other words, the Fed has revealed that monetary policy will remain lax in all of 2010.
·         Another data-heavy day: The USD will edge lower and risk (stocks, HY, AUD etc.) will edge higher.




Calendar

Economic Data Releases

Country
Time (GMT)
Name
Expectation
Prior
Comment
US
13:30
Personal Income/Spending MoM (OCT)
0.1% / 0.5%
0.0% / -0.5%

US
13:30
Durable Goods Orders MoM (OCT)
0.5%
1.4%
Saxo Bank: 0.3%
US
15:00
New Home Sales MoM (OCT)
0.4%
-3.6%
Saxo Bank: -1.5%



FX

FX
Daily stance
Comment
EURUSD
0/+
Buy dips to 1.4955, or break of 1.5015, for a test of 1.5060. Stop below 1.4910.
USDJPY
0/-
Sell rallies to 88.50-60 res area for a push through 88.0 targeting 2009 low of 87.15.
EURJPY
0
Expect consolidation within a 132.0 -133.0 band.
GBPUSD
0/+
Break abv 1.6620 suggests 1.6675 next target but seen capped there for return to 1.6585-95.
AUDUSD
0/-
May have seen temp top at 0.9262. Retracement can extend to 0.9220 before rebound higher.



FX Options

FX-Options
Comment
EURUSD
Vols have slipped with plenty of sellers for strikes 7 Jan and under. As spot revisits the

1.50 area, expect more offers keeping spot capped.
USDJPY
Seeing a few buyers of short date low delta downside this morning with the move in spot

lower. 8800 level remains key and gamma being at such low levels remains good value.
AUDUSD
Front end remains soft all day in Asia. 1m traded down to 14.2 and spot has settled in

a range around 9250 level. Few buyers of upside 9300-9400 strikes for 3w-1m area.


Equities

Equities
Daily stance
Comment
DAX
0/+
Buy on dips towards 5748 targeting 5784. S/L below 5731.
FTSE
0/+
Buy on dips towards 5311 targeting 5344. S/L below 5295.
S&P500
0/+
Buy on dips towards 1102 targeting 1110. S/L below 1099.
NASDAQ100
0/+

DJIA
0/+



Futures

Commodities
Daily Stance
Comment
Gold
0/+
Buy on dips towards 1175 and target 1185. Stop below 1170.
Silver
0/+
Buy around 18.75 and target 18.95. Stop below 18.66.
Oil (CLZ9)
0/+
Buy on dips towards 76.10 and target 78. Stop below 75.20

The Market pushes for further dollar weakness after FOMC minutes

Gold hits another new high on reports India may buy more from IMF



MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

  • US Q3 GDP Revision out at 2.8% q/q, as expected vs. 3.5% prior
  • US Q3 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index out at -8.86% y/y vs. -10.25% expected and revised -14.74% prior
  • US Nov. Consumer Confidence out at 49.5 vs. 47.3 expected and revised 48.7 prior
  • US Nov. Richmond Fed Index out at 1 vs. 8 expected and 7 prior
  • US Sep. House Price Index out at flat m/m vs. +0.1% expected and revised -0.5% prior
  • US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence out at -47 vs. -45 prior
  • JP Oct. Merchandise Trade Bal. out at ¥807.1b vs. ¥465.5b expected and revised ¥525.3b prior
  • JP Oct. Trade Exports out at -23.2% y/y vs. -26.8% expected and revised -30.6% prior
  • JP Oct. Trade Imports out at -35.6% vs. -34.0% expected and -36.9% prior
  • JP Oct. Corporate Service Price out at -2.2% y/y vs. -2.6% expected and -3.2% prior
  • AU Nov. DEWR Skilled Vacancies out at +2.4% m/m, unchanged from revised data prior
  • AU Q3 Construction Work Done out at +2.2% vs. flat expected and revised 4.5% prior
  • JP Nov. Small Business Confidence out at 43.0 vs. 43.4 prior


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

(All times GMT)
  • GE GfK Consumer Confidence (0700)
  • Sweden Consumer/Manufacturing Confidence (0815)
  • Norway Unemployment (0900)
  • UK Q3 GDP Revision (0930)
  • US Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications (1200)
  • US Personal Income/Spending (1330)
  • US Durable Goods Orders (1330)
  • US Weekly Jobless Claims (1330)
  • US Final Univ. of Michigan Confidence (1500)
  • US New Home Sales (1500)
  • EU ECB’s Mersch to speak (1500)

Market Comments:
Once again the risk “scare” that was a major feature of the Asian session yesterday proved fleeting and both the European and US sessions reverted back to broad-based dollar selling. A mix of stronger data releases proved to be the catalyst for the rebound in EUR, as German IFO surveys came in better than forecast across all reports, while talk that an agreement had been reached to stabilize West LB also helped sentiment. The BOE testimony was balanced, though it was hugely apparent that Gov. King is unimpressed by the economic rebound. King said policy tightening (end of QE and traditional rate hikes) would take place over the next 2-3 years.
In the US, data was mixed, with a downward revision to Q3 growth widely expected and the two separate house price indices from S&P/Case-Shiller, while higher m/m, failed to inspire. On the other hand, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence showed a strong rebound to 49.5 versus last month’s dismal 47.3 print but the weekly ABC seems mired at the -47 level.
FOMC minutes also held nothing new apart from upgrades to forecasts for growth (to -0.4% to -0.1% from -1.5% to-1.0% for this year, 2.5%-3.5% from 2.1%-3.3% for next). Some concern was expressed that the low interest rate environment could lead to excessive risk taking but the minutes also made it clear that short term interest rates would be determined by changes in the economic outlook. However, perhaps one of the biggest takeaways from the minutes was the fact that the FOMC regarded the dollar’s recent depreciation as orderly and may be interpreted by markets as a “green light” for further dollar weakness.
There was evidence of a minor dip in the dollar during the Asian session as the dollar index reverted back to sub-75 levels. Volumes were not particularly large though and the stand-out mover was again gold with another all-time high for the XAUUSD pair. Some pointed to news in local press that India was “open” to buying more gold from the IMF as a reason for the firmer tone.
Data releases tended to surprise to the upside, with Japan’s trade surplus widening out to ¥807.1 bln, almost double forecasts, and marked the ninth monthly surplus in a row and almost back to Q1 2008 levels. Export performance was solid with exports gaining 2.5% on a monthly basis, the first gains in 4 months despite a rising JPY. Imports fell 2.0% m/m and 35.6% compared with a year ago.
Australian data also looked as if it was confirming the RBA’s more-bullish stance on the economy. Construction work rebounded by a solid 2.2% in Q3 while Q2’s initial 0.1% decline also revised up sharply to a 4.5% rebound. The better performance was reflected across the board in both residential and non-residential building work. With construction accounting for close to 15% of the economy, the stronger data has positive implications for Q3 GDP data and, more immediate, the RBA rate meeting on Tuesday. The data, firmer gold and a weaker dollar all contributed to the upward bias for AUD.
A busy data slate today, with UK GDP data for Q3 grabbing the attention in Europe while the final fling for the US before the Thanksgiving holiday features personal income/spending, durable goods orders, early jobless claims, Michigan confidence and new home sales.
Happy Thanksgiving.

THIS IS SILVER'S YEAR

When they close the books on 2009, they'll chalk up a big win for silver vs. gold.

One of the big questions facing the precious-metals buyer is "Should I buy gold or silver?" As we profiled in September, since the bull market in precious metals began in 2001, the answer is, "There isn't much difference in the returns... but silver is much more volatile."

Since the 2001 "kickoff," gold and silver are both up a little over 300%. But as you can see from today's comparison chart, when a solid metals rally gets going, the returns in silver can get extraordinary. Our chart plots the percentage gains in gold (black line) versus silver (blue line). Silver is up nearly 65% this year, while gold is up 30%. The blue line, however, has much bigger peaks and valleys.

Moral of the story: You can make a heck of a lot of money in silver... just be willing to stomach a lot of volatility on the road to riches.






The Simplest Reason Gold Will Soar

By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

When the bank pays you nothing in interest, gold goes up. And right now, the bank is paying you nothing in interest.

Why does gold go up when interest rates are low? It's simple...

The knock against owning gold has always been that, unlike cash, it pays no interest... Compound interest is almost irresistible. If you can earn 7% a year on a $10,000 deposit, in 10 years time, it will be worth $20,000. Gold will just sit there like a bump on a log.

But every so often, like right now, paper money pays you no interest... and the scales tip in favor of gold.

That's the simple version. Let's add one little tiny wrinkle to it, so you can see why gold has become irresistible now...

The forecast for inflation in 2010 is around 2%. Yet the Fed is keeping interest rates near zero. So instead of earning nothing in interest at the bank, you're actually LOSING 2% a year to inflation. That's what's REALLY happening – the REAL interest rate at the bank (minus inflation) is NEGATIVE 2%.

My longtime friend Porter Stansberry asked me to do a study of what happens when real interest rates are less than zero. The results were astonishing...

In short, when real rates are negative, gold soars and stocks stink. And when real rates are positive, gold stinks and stocks soar.  




Here are the actual results. (Note: These are COMPOUND ANNUAL GAINS.)

1973 through 1980
The median real interest rate was -1.15%.
Gold returned +32% per year.
The real return on the S&P 500 was -7% per year (not including dividends).

1981 through 2001
The median real interest rate was +2.7%.
Gold returned -3.5% per year.
The real return on the S&P 500 was +7% per year (not including dividends).

2002 to today
The median real interest rate was -0.4%.
Gold returned +18.5% per year.
The real return on the S&P 500 was -3% per year (not including dividends).

Well, there it is, plain as day. And you can see, these trends persist. 


In 2010, real rates will be negative. (Bernanke will keep nominal rates near zero... so subtracting inflation will give you a negative real interest rate.) There is essentially no chance for a POSITIVE real interest rate in 2010. Said another way, you WILL lose money in the bank in 2010. Whatever interest you earn won't keep up with inflation.

History shows, under that environment, stocks don't do well... and gold soars. There's nothing in sight to end that trend. Trade accordingly.

Good investing,
Steve.


Gold shines despite signs of risk fatigue.

Currency and stock market movements combined with a massive flow of investment into commodities continues to set the overall tone of commodity markets.


This week was the last full trading week ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday next week. This normally signals the beginning of the winding down for year end. After that time many traders and funds begins to focus on year end and on how they should be positioned into the normally quiet month of December.
Some risk fatigue began to emerge towards the end of the week with energy and base metals giving up some of their recent gains. Whether it is that or just early position squaring time will tell.
The wall of money floating around in the financial system continues to benefit commodities as a way of diversifying portfolios and in order to shield investments from a non-negligible risk of a US debt and currency crisis.  A research note from a major bank sees flows into commodities this year of USD 60 billion which will bring the total amount invested up towards USD 240 billion at year end.
Most precious metals and some base metals made new highs for the year and the Baltic Dry bulk index, which indicates the cost of shipping dry bulk commodities around the globe, rallied sharply. Gold still catches most of the headlines as it despite moving into a very overbought situation continues to make new highs reaching USD 1.150, a 12.3% rally since the news about India buying IMF gold broke some weeks ago.


We see the break above the 2008 high as a signal that a new rally has been initiated which could take the price of gold towards an initial target of USD 1.300 followed by a potential 5 year target of USD 1.500. Gold still has a long way to go – both in terms of price appreciation and in terms of years of increases. It will at times be volatile, experiencing quarterly declines, but the overall direction will be higher
Near term however gold has moved into an extreme overbought situation which has not been seen for many years and we urge new investors to be patient as a correction back towards USD 1,120 and maybe even USD 1,100 is increasingly likely. The trigger for a correction could be the upcoming U.S. holiday next week as positions in correlated markets like the EURUSD could run into profit taking and thereby remove some of the recent support.
The energy sector continues to be driven by present reality versus future expectations as the overall demand situation still remains weak. Good demand from emerging economies continues to be off-set by continued weak demand from the developed economies.
On this basis the overall investor appetite for commodities is still the main driver of energy prices as investors seeks shelter and a hedge from the falling dollar. This tuck of war has kept Crude Oil range bound over the last month with USD 75 to 80 being the current range.
The global economic pick up over the last few quarters is still happening on the back of continued job losses and that leaves a big question about when and by how much consumption will pick up. For now though the worries about dollar weakness and future inflation should be enough to keep the prices supported over the coming weeks and months.

Technically the front month Crude of January is currently stuck in a bullish flag pattern between USD 75 to 80 range and just the last few days some risk adversity has been seen on the back of a stronger dollar. A greater bullish potential remains as long prices stays above USD 75, otherwise there is a risk of returning to the recent USD 65 to 75 trading range. Some position squaring ahead of the US holiday next week will probably be the main focus into the early part of next week.

AUDUSD Finally Breaks the 8-month Old trendline, triggering a stop fest. EURUSD hanging on to support by a thread so far - Forex Market Update

AUDUSD finally breaks the 8-month old trendline, triggering a stop fest. EURUSD hanging on to support by a thread so far.

Little news shaking the markets, as much of recent activity seems to be about position adjustments.



MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

  • New Zealand Oct. Credit Card Spending fell -0.4% YoY vs. -2.3% in Sep.
  • Japan BoJ left target rate unchanged at 0.10% as expected
  • Germany Oct. Producer Prices out at 0.0% MoM and -7.6% YoY vs. +0.1%/-7.5% expected, respectively


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

(All times GMT)
  • New Zealand Oct. Visitor Arrivals (Sun 2145)
  • Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (Mon 0030)
  • Japan Oct. Supermarket Sales (0500)
Market Comments:
The move in risk aversion in the European session provided a big boost to the greenback, and EURUSD is pounding on the local support just above 1.4800 as we write this, and AUDUSD has collapsed through support and triggered a stop-fest now that the multi-touch trendline stretching back to March of this year has been broken. USDCAD. JPY was also stronger and JPY crosses, especially in the higher beta pairs, took a trip back to the south after a strong bounce late yesterday. Today's NZDJPY chart shows an interesting head and shoulders developing.
Chart: NZDJPY
New Zealand turned suddenly very vulnerable on the combination of the sell-off in risk and the OECD report encouraging the RBNZ to keep rates low due to a fragile economy. The combination has led to some impressive downside for NZDJPY, which now appears to be developing a rather large head and shoulders formation. It will be interesting to watch the behavior of the pair if the neckline is breached in coming weeks.


PBOC chief underlines weak yuan policy
In case we were in doubt about China's stance on the yuan, the PBOC governor Zhou said yesterday that China is "passive" on the value of the US dollar. It certainly appears that China is either in no rush at all to move on the yuan, or is using rhetoric as a smokescreen for actual plans to loosen up yuan policy in order to avoid overspeculation ahead of the fact (lower odds). Interestingly, in Bill Gross' latest commentary, he suggests that China is likely to change its yuan policy over the next 6 months.  Does he know something we don't? In any case, Zhou's comments are likely helping to give EUR support outside of EURUSD and EURJPY becuase it suggests that the reserve diversification trade will not slow in coming months.
Negative yield on some US treasuries
An interesting article in the FT points out that some of the shortest term treasuries in the US are yielding less than zero percent as banks scramble to present the cleanest possible balance sheets by year end.  Six-month bills dropped to a record low yield of 13 bps - lower than during the crisis last year. The article points out that all major US banks have a year end that coincides with the calendar year-end, whereas in years past, all of the big investment banks reported at the end of November. Nothing is more remarkable than the breaking records in low yields while the headline fret inflation and gold is trading at close to record highs. On that latter point, however, research is circulating that suggests that relative to the supply of money in existence, gold is still quite cheap - see Evan-Pritchards recent piece on gold over at the Telegraph for more on that subject.
Looking ahead: Whither the sell-off?
Looking at fundamental inputs into this move in risk aversion and USD rally, it appears that what we are seeing may just be an example of a market adjustment due to over-positioning. Risk inputs still suggest relatively benign conditions, even if they are less benign than in recent months. Still, the risk rally has been of such magnitude in currencies that we could see a considerable further adjustment lower in the riskier trades. If we try to connect the dots between the FT article and the action in bond markets and currencies, one might propose that some of this move is due to significant players taking their chips off the table well ahead of year end, hence the unwind.
Remember that next week contains the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday. Have a great weekend!

Jim Rogers: This Will be one of the best investments of our time

From The Pragmatic Capitalist:

This week’s guru outlook brings you Jim Rogers.

Rogers has become infamous in recent years for his prescient calls on the global meltdown and the commodity boom, but long before that Rogers became famous for co-founding the Quantum Fund with George Soros. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund (see here for the Soros Guru outlook) while the S&P 500 returned just 47%. They ran what is considered to be one of the first truly global macro hedge funds.

Rogers has an interesting outlook currently...


Risk Coming a bit back today after yesterdays Sell-off - Wakeup Call

After Thursdays sell off in risk we had some rebound in risk during the Asian session overnight which will spillover into Europe. With no important data out today we expect a quiet day in markets.





Calendar


Economic Data Releases

Country
Time (GMT)
Name
Expectation
Prior
Comment
EC
08:00
ECB’s Weber Speaks in Frankfurt
-
-
-
EC
10:30
ECB’s Trichet Speaks in Frankfurt
-
-
-









What's going on?

Theme Comment
·         After Thursdays sell off in risk (equities, commodities and AUD, EUR vs. JPY, USD and CHF we had some rebound in risk during the Asian session overnight and we expect this to continue into the European session. With no important data out today expect a quiet day in markets.
·         US macro data seems to be softening a bit – claims, leading indicators and mortgage delinquencies disappointing yesterday. On the back of this we could see some further retracement in risk across asset classes in the very short term.
·         Gold is continuing higher as Chinese consumers demand for gold reached record levels in the third quarter. China was the sole market where gold jewellery demand is up in Q3 with large falls YoY being recorded in India and the Middle East.




FX

FX
Daily stance
Comment
EURUSD
0/-
Expect rebound to stall at 1.4935 lvl, 1.4975 max, for retracement to 1.4845-50. Stop abv 1.5015
USDJPY
0/-
Now capped at 89.10-15 for a re-test of 88.40, stop abv 89.75
EURJPY
0
200-day MA holding for now. Likely ranging 132.2 – 133.2
GBPUSD
0/-
Prefer to sell rallies to 1.67 for a test of 1.6620 then 1.6520. Stop abv 1.6755
AUDUSD
0/-
Rebound seen limited to 0.9215-20 for retracement back to 0.9130 then 0.9100. Stop abv 0.9255



FX Options


FX-Options
Comment
EURUSD
Vols opened slightly higher in Europe yesterday but has since leveled off with the 1m

riskies trading .75 vols EUR puts. Gamma is unlikely to be bid until we see bigger moves.
USDJPY
Vols continue to remain soft in a quiet session. Spot trades lower towards yesterdays lows

Seeing a few bids for 1m area upside strikes.
AUDUSD
Front end vols continue to see selling pressure. The 1 week traded to 12.7 in Asia, and risk

reversals are better bid so would expect more downside bias to prevail.


Equities


Equities
Daily stance
Comment
DAX
0/+
Buy on dips towards 5691 targeting 5738. S/L below 5675.
FTSE100
0/+
Buy on dips towards 5254 targeting 5299. S/L below 5239.
S&P500
0/+
Buy on dips towards 1090 targeting 1102. S/L below 1085.
Nasdaq100
0/+

DJIA
0/+




Futures

Commodities
Daily Stance
Comment
Gold
0
Look for consolidation between 1,140 and 1,150.
Silver
0
N/term res at 18.60, abv targets 18.80 else 18.20-18.60 range
Oil (CLZ9)
0/-
Potential for further losses. Res now at 78.65, n/term target 76.60

US CPI - Wakeup Call

The major event in markets is the release of US CPI figures. We expect flat reading of the numbers - which should be good for risk and market sentiment.





Calendar

Economic Data Releases

Country
Time (GMT)
Name
Expectation
Prior
Comment
UK
09:30
BoE Minutes
-
-
-
US
13:30
CPI YoY (OCT)
-0.3%
-1.3%

US
13:30
Housing Starts (OCT)
600K
590K




What's going on?

Theme Comment
·         Bank of England Minutes today should be interesting – not least their discussion of inflation and quantitative easing. BoE surprised the market a couple of weeks ago by only raising the QE target amount by £25B, not £50B as was expected.
·         CPI out of the US today could disappoint the market. We expect flat numbers in both CPI and Core CPI, slightly below the consensus of market expectations.
·         Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization yesterday were slightly disappointing not least when you take into account the fact that utilities was the only improving industry group. Was the good September report just leftovers from Cash for Clunkers?
·         US Housing starts today is an important number. Starts have so far stabilized just below 600K, but we need  continued improvement to really get a recovery going.




FX

FX
Daily stance
Comment
EURUSD
0/-
Expect to find res in the 1.4900-10 area for a re-test of 1.4825. stop abv 1.4950
USDJPY
0/+
While holding 88.80 suppt expect rebound to extend to 89.70-80 lvl before lower.
EURJPY
0
132.50 target met. Look for further consolidation in a 132.50 – 133.50 range
GBPUSD
0
Ranging 1.6775 – 1.6835 ahead of BOE minutes. Go with breakout either way
AUDUSD
0/-
Risk of deeper correction. Seen capped at 0.9310-15 for test of 0.9210. Stop abv 0.9355


FX Options

FX-Options
Comment
EURUSD
Brokers were mainly looking to buy short term EUR calls but have been pretty quiet in

general. With spot unable to break current ranges, expect gamma to trade softer as well.
USDJPY
Front end continued to get sold off with spot managing  a mere 20 point move in Asia.

Overnight risk reversals were paid at 1.5 Yen calls over so possible that spot follows lower.
AUDUSD
Front end remains soft but mid curve holds up well. Back end likely to remain steady

and with gamma being shunned, we should expect further curve steepening.


Equities

Equities
Daily stance
Comment
DAX
0/+
Buy at the break of 5791 targeting 5812. S/L below 5780.
FTSE
0/+
Buy at the break of 5354 targeting 5375. S/L below 5345.
S&P500
0/+
Buy at the break of 1111 targeting 1117. S/L below 1109.
Nasdaq
0/+

DJIA
0/+



Futures

Gold
0/-
May struggle to overcome 1,145 lvl. Risk n/term deeper correction to 1,132, poss 1,127 again
Silver
0/-
Prefer to sell rallies to 18.40, or break below 18.30 for 18.20 target
Oil (CLZ9)
0/-
May peak n/term below 80.0. Look for retracement back to 78.50

USD fights back on Obama's urging China to consider yuan move US core PPI shocks to the Downside - USD Bullish or Bearish?

Lower yields continue to support the JPY. Critical EURJPY support nearing once again.



MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

  • Japan Q3 Housing Loans rose 0.8% YoY vs. +0.4% in Q2
  • Switzerland Sep. Retail Sales fell -1.6% YoY vs. -1.0% in Aug.
  • Sweden Q3 Total Number of Employees fell -2.8% YoY vs. -1.9% in Q2
  • UK Oct. CPI rose +0.2% MoM and +1.5% YoY vs. +0.1/+1.4% expected, respectively
  • UK Oct. Core CPI rose +1.8% YoY as expected and vs. +1.7% in Sep.
  • UK Oct. RPI rose +0.3% MoM and fell -0.8% YoY vs. +0.1% /-1.0% expected, respectively
  • EuroZone Sep. Trade Balance was +6.8B vs. 2.2B in Aug.
  • US Oct. Producer Price Index out at +0.3% MoM and -1.9% YoY, vs. +0.5% and -1.8% expected, respectively
  • US Oct. PPI ex Food and Energy fell -0.6% MoM and rose +0.7% YoY, vs. +0.1%/+1.4% expected, respectively


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION

(All times GMT)
  • US Sep. Net Long-term TIC flows (1400)
  • US Sep. Total Net TIC Flows (1400)
  • US Oct. Industrial Production (1415)
  • US Oct. Capacity Utilization (1415)
  • US Fed's Lacker to Speak (1515)
  • US Fed's Pianalto to Speak (1730)
  • US Nov. NAHB Housing Market Index (1800)
  • US Treasury Secretary Geithner to Testify about G-20 (1930)
  • US Weekly API Crude Oil and Product Inventories (2130)
  • US Weekly ABC Consumer Confidence (2200)
  • Australia Q3 Wage Cost Index (0030)

Market Comments:
The USD and JPY have swept stronger against the market in today's European session. And for once, the USD move has come unaided by a concomitant move in equities to the downside. This is an interesting divergence, to say the least. We wonder if yesterday's decisive move lower in yields, which took the US 2-year, for example, into new territory is serving as a game-changer across markets. After all, if bond buyers are willing to chase these pathetic yields, it strongly suggests more perceived weakness ahead than rallying asset prices would otherwise suggest. Of course, as we have said ad nauseam of late, the rally in asset prices is a side effect of the "liquidity is king" theme that has been playing for some time now. Alternatively, the USD bears might tell us that the USD move was just a bit of position adjustment triggered by Obama calling for China to allow the yuan to appreciate (President Hu, for his part, didn't even acknowledge what Obama said about currency appreciation...), as the consensus is that a Chinese move on the yuan will be largely bullish for the USD relative to the Euro. We prefer to prick up our ears here and listen very closely to the market's pulse, since this move looks interesting. The slavish correlation of the USD with risk appetite has been the be all and end all of currency market moves of late, so any divergence is certainly worth noting.
The moves in JPY crosses have followed the simple logic of compressed interest rate spreads, and EURJPY is now less than a figure from the pivotal 200-day moving average just below 132.00. A close below that level could get something interesting started across the board for non-USD JPY crosses (non-USD since USD and JPY strength tend to be more or less positively correlated) USDJPY has actually bounced a bit on the overall USD strength.
Technically speaking
The USD managed to cross to the strong side of the weekly pivot in AUDUSD (0.9297), USDCAD (1.0568), EURUSD (1.4925) and USDCHF (1.0120), all of which are levels worth watching intraday. A sharp move back through these levels suggests we're just seeing some churning in the range for now. The argument that this isn't just a sharp move within the range is enhanced if we get a close through 1.4820 in EURUSD in the sessions ahead, and for example, below 0.9210 in AUDUSD.
Inflation data
Today's UK inflation data was slightly higher than expected, but not enough to serve as a catalyst. US PPI data served up a rather shocking -0.6% drop for the core ex Food and Energy index on month-on-month comparisons and a mere +0.7% YoY, which is the lowest reading since the core PPI dipped sharply in 2002- 03. This is not necessarily a USD-negative development if the idea rubs off that low US inflation could mean lower inflation elsewhere and that too much tightening is priced into the market for other central banks.
Looking ahead
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data out in a bit are a likely to show continued activity pick-up in the US manufacturing sector, which is in the midst of an inventory rebuilding cycle. Tomorrow, GBP is in focus again with the Bank of England minutes. EURGBP is having a try through its 200-day moving average today. GBP seems to be enjoying the low rates environment here much as the JPY is, and the market will be looking for more clues concerning the MPC's feelings about any further quantitative easing moves. Also up tomorrow we have Canadian and US CPI data. Oil prices refuse to break out of the rather high range of late, and the eventual implications for year-on-year inflation comparisons are obvious, since oil was trading below 40 dollars around the beginning of the year. Clearly, after yesterday's Bernanke rhetoric, however, the Fed sees little to worry about on the inflation front.
Chart: AUDUSD, again, again
AUDUSD has teased with the prospect of a turnaround on a couple of occasions lately, and we wonder if today's move is just another of these teases that eventually yields to another leg up or whether we are looking at a genuine turnaround and larger consolidation for the pair. The latter scenario is preferred as long as we close below this week's pivot just below 0.9300 and is enhanced with a close through the recent low at 0.9210 in coming sessions. The monster trendline further below lies in wait as the next step. The relatively dovish RBA minutes overnight have brought the interest rate spreads tighter vs. the USD and suggest that new highs in AUDUSD aren't warranted here. Note the divergence in the momentum for the daily stochastics as well.


The World's Biggest Players Are Buying Gold


By Jeff Clark, senior editor, Casey's Gold Resource Report

Central banks are net buyers of gold for first time in 22 years...

Precious-metals research firm GFMS reports central banks around the world bought more gold in the second quarter than they sold for the first time since 1987. And consider this:

  • Amount of gold France will sell this year: zero
  • Amount of gold Germany will sell this year: zero
  • Amount of gold Switzerland will sell this year: zero
So let's get this straight: China and Russia are buying gold, several European countries have ceased selling their gold, and central banks are net buyers. Wall Street is also piling into gold. John Paulson, the most successful money manager of 2008, has made a $4.3 billion bet on gold and gold stocks. David Einhorn, Paul Tudor Jones, and Jim Rogers have all purchased gold this year, too. 
And just last week comes this news from the Financial Times: The world's wealthiest families are also switching to gold. "Two-thirds of the 100 respondents to a survey by the Family Office Channel, a new website, said that super-rich families are now more likely to invest in gold and other commodities."

These trends are real and they're pushing gold higher by the day. But the real fireworks will start when Main Street catches gold fever. The gold market is tiny; ergo, any panic out of the dollar by the general public will send gold investments into the stratosphere. As Doug Casey likes to say, "It'll be like trying to push the contents of Hoover Dam through a garden hose."

But what exactly does a garden hose look like?

If we added up all the gold ever mined on the planet, its total value would equal no more than $5 trillion at today's prices. Yet, look at how this compares to the debt and bailouts and other monetary mischief of current governments...  

 
* MZM (Money of Zero Maturity) is a measure of the liquid money supply in the economy. It consists of coins and currency, checking accounts, savings deposits, and money-market funds.
**Year-to-date figures.

 
Let's make this chart very clear. Of the $5 trillion in gold ever mined...
  • The U.S. government has thrown more than twice as much at the economy in the past 12 months.
  • The U.S. debt is more than double this amount so far this year.
  • Total global government bailouts are almost four times larger. (This is a conservative figure. One estimate puts it at $24 trillion.)
I intended to include annual gold production as one of the comparisons, but the chart isn't big enough and neither is your monitor: 2008's global gold production equaled about $73 billion. To make that figure discernable on the chart would require the Total World Bailouts bar to hit the ceiling above your head. That's how small the gold market is.

The implications are undeniable: When the greater public rushes into gold – whether in response to inflation, dollar woes, war, whatever – the price will be forced up by an order of magnitude.

While physical gold will protect our wealth, it's the gold stocks that can potentially make us wealthy.

Once again, to get a sense of the Lilliputian size of the gold industry, I compared it to several other leading industries and stocks. 

  
The value, as measured by market capitalization, of all gold producers around the world is less than Wal-Mart's. Every gold stock would need to nearly double just for the industry to match ExxonMobil. The oil and gas industry is about 12 times bigger.  
When your neighbors and relatives and co-workers and friends all start clamoring to buy gold stocks, the pressure on prices will be enormous, rocketing our positions upward.

Just putting these charts together stirred my feelings of restlessness, making me anxious for the mania in precious metals to arrive. But the timing is not up to us. Be patient. If you're invested in gold and high-quality gold stocks, you're on the right side of this trend.
Good investing,
Jeff Clark
Casey Research

P.S. Had you bought gold, say, four years ago, when it was around $450 an ounce, you'd be sitting on a nearly 130% gain. But you could have made up to three times as much with even the most conservative precious-metals investments – large- and medium-cap gold and silver producers. It's not too late to take advantage of this once-in-a-lifetime trend.
 

Look for Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization from the US today - Wakeup Call

Risk is still on. Expect a little profit taking here on the opening of European markets, but risk assets will most likely revert and trade higher during today.





Calendar


Economic Data Releases

Country
Time (GMT)
Name
Expectation
Prior
Comment
US
13:30
PPI / Core PPI MoM (OCT)
0.5% / 0.1%
-0.6% / -0.1%

US
14:15
Industrial Production MoM (OCT)
0.4%
0.7%

US
14:15
Capacity Utilization (OCT)
70.8%
70.5%




What's going on?

Theme Comment
·         Bernanke’s comments yesterday put an additional weight on the USD as he indicated a longer period of ultra-easy monetary policy.
·         The risk-trade is still on and S&P500 forcefully broke the trendline resistance since October 2007. With Bernanke’s comments, we could go somewhat higher in stocks/risk. Long AUD and NZD vs. USD still seem to be the best way to play this theme.
·         A fundamental worry: US/UK etc. Sovereign CDS prices are moving sharply higher (but from quite low levels) and interest rate swap options indicate expectations of increasing risk premiums for especially US debt. That might be a real and growing problem.




FX


FX
Daily stance
Comment
EURUSD
0/+
Still buy dips to 1.4930 suppt for test of 1.5015, poss 1.5065. Stop/reverse below 1.49 for 1.4825.
USDJPY
0/-
Initial res at 89.30 expected to hold for retracement back to 88.80, stop abv 89.75.
EURJPY
0/-
Seen capped at 133.75-80 lvl for a retracement back to 132.50. Stop abv 134.30.
GBPUSD
0/+
Buy dips to 1.6785-90 for re-test of 1.6875. Stop/reverse below 1.6740 for 1.6670.
AUDUSD
0/+
Retracement can extend to 0.9310 but buy there for 0.9375, poss 0.9425. Stop below 0.9260.



FX Options


FX-Options
Comment
EURUSD
Despite a move down to 1.4880 in NY, vols ended up largely unchanged. Front end likely

to remain suppressed as the dollar claws back slightly during the Asian session.
USDJPY
Spot was glued tightly to a range throughout asia and that has not helped vols. This

should continue as long as spot holds between 8880 and 8930.
AUDUSD
1w Tokyo cut got given down to 12.5% this morning and most front end interest in the

brokers are sellers except for the 2w which covers the next RBA date.


Equities


Equities
Daily stance
Comment
Dax
0/+
Buy on dips towards 5747 targeting 5860. S/L below 5732.
FTSE
0/+
Buy on dips towards 5350 targeting 5429. S/L below 5331.
S&P500
0/+
Buy on dips towards 1100 targeting 1118. S/L below 1096.
Nasdaq
0/+

DJIA
0/+




Futures

Commodities
Daily Stance
Comment
Gold
0/+
Buy on the break of 1144 and target 1155. Stop below 1140.
Silver
0/+
Buy on dips towards 18.05 and target 18.35. Stop below 17.90
Oil (CLZ9)
0/+
Buy on dips towards 78.00 and target 80.00. Stop below 77.00.

Ratings and Recommendations