Financial Advisor

China: Officially in “Bubble Mode”

The argument’s over. China’s in a bubble. Period, end of story.
Yes, there have been a few high-profile arguments about China being either in a bubble, or, if you’re a CNBC talking head, ‘overheated.’ A few arguments have been made, and, naturally, counterarguments that everything in China is fine.
But my argument’s different. It doesn’t rely on the past returns of the stock market, which many argue with China. That’s rear-view mirror investing, and it only shows the road behind, not ahead.
My argument isn’t about China’s aggressive lending polices per se, but it does tie into that. After all, credit, or the lack thereof, can vastly change a company’s fortunes.
What my argument does tie into is where those loans were made. And I’m convinced that they were made to a slew of companies that don’t have the ability to repay.
I recently ran a screen of the 1,000 companies with the lowest Altman Z-Score, but with a twist: I decided to look at the global picture rather than focusing on U.S. companies (and U.S.-listed ADRs).
And, yes, while the U.S. still has plenty of companies ripe for shorting when the technical trigger hits, by far Chinese stocks dominated my list. The first page lists the worst 31 companies globally (by Altman Z-Score). 14 companies, or 45% of the total, were Chinese stocks traded either in China or listed in Hong Kong.
In fact, the worst company on my screen, Guangdong Sunrise-B (Shenzhen: 200030.SZ), has an AZS of 242.4. That’d be like buying Lehman at their peak price. Amazingly enough, this company still trades more than double off its 52-week low, and sports a market cap of $2.5 billion!
Of course, I can’t recommend shorting in China directly. First, it’s difficult as a foreigner to even purchase these shares for the long haul, let alone find a local willing to loan you shares to sell short. And, sorry, most of their stocks don’t have options on them yet (the ADRs are available on American exchanges and so are another matter).
Nevertheless, the startlingly high concentration of Chinese stocks on my global screen tells me that there are some real problems brewing in China. Despite supposedly good news about state-mandated growth, in many areas that growth is coming at the expense of a growing problem.

Pushing on a String… Central Bankers Never Learn

In addition to the startling data I uncovered pointing to an equities bubble forming in China, I was surprised to see a fair number of Japanese companies as well. After all, the Nikkei is down nearly 70% since peaking at the beginning of its first "lost decade." Followed by another "lost decade." And now starting on a third "lost decade"…
Circling the Drain: Japan’s Nikkei Index on a Long, Grinding Haul to the Bottom
You’d think by now the Japanese would have managed to gradually write down their toxic assets from overvalued real estate… but apparently they haven’t, and many a company faces the same problem as Chinese stocks right now: insufficient cash flow to fully repay debts. But decades of ignoring the reality of the situation have taken hold.
Japan’s attempt to circumvent the painful reality of a burst bubble entailed two critical components: ignoring losses, and keeping interest rates ultra-low for an extended period of time to ‘stimulate’ the economy. Ideally, economic growth would allow for assets listed on the books to overcome their paper losses and reach their peak value again.
But it hasn’t happened yet. And it won’t in 2010, just as it didn’t happen in 2000, or 1990.
…and that brings us to the Federal Reserve, which is foolishly pursuing the same policies.

I Think We’re Turning Japanese, I Really Think So

Earlier this month, the Fed renewed its commitment to ultra-low rates, at least through the end of the year, sparking a modest rally in stocks.
These low rates should spur lending. But consumers are working to cut debt. And banks prefer using their cash to shore up their excess reserves.
This means that even though the Fed is pursuing an expansionary monetary policy, it’s not working. It’s called ‘pushing on a string.’ For every dollar created, it should circulate in the economy several times. The more it circulates, the higher its ‘velocity’ is.
But according to the latest data, every extra dollar created is only turning into $0.79.
In other words, the Fed has to pump more dollars than it would otherwise. And it’s already got its hands full with asset purchases, figuring out what to do with all the toxic mortgages it’s bought, and how to prop up asset prices. A multiplier below 1.0 is a signal that the system of fractional reserve banking is broken. That certainly fits in with other data we’ve looked at.
It can’t end well. And the only consolation that we’re not going to go completely the way of Japan is the dollar’s status as the world reserve currency… but even that won’t be enough, given the rumblings from other countries about ditching the dollar.
But banks have rallied off the Fed’s announcement, as it means they’re in the clear for the rest of the year buying Treasuries and keeping the spread on their zero interest rates.
That rally has given us another short-selling opportunity at the right price.
Sincerely,
Andrew Packer

FX Closing Note: Which is right, Bunds or EURJPY ?

The day proved as chaotic as one might expect today, though most of the action was in the EUR-, GBP- and especially JPY crosses. The JPY went from weakness in Asia (new prominent high in USDJPY) to a sudden bout of strength on the ugly ADP number in the early US session and then back to even weaker weakness by the end of today's US session.
Chart: EURJPY and Bunds
Let's see how the JPY starts the first few days of the New Year before we all decide to hop aboard the weak JPY train. One development today speaking against the fresh eight-week highs in EURJPY was the rallying Bund market, which has been rallying all week. Bund yields and EURJPY are normally positively correlated, so JPY shorts should be hoping for a new Bund sell-off if they would like to feel more comfortable with their positions.
Chart: EURGBP
Elsewhere, the GBP at first pulled flailed a bit for support vs. the Euro today after the strong German employment numbers and high EuroZone inflation number, but it reversed strongly again by later in the day and remains poised very close to the crticial 200-day moving average. A close below there largely destroys the rally attempt by EURGBP and could set up a sell-off to much lower levels.
In general, as we indicated earlier, we are a bit reluctant to draw too many conclusions from today's action with the end of month/quarter/year fixing implications in play, though our Monday message to the market: "It's do or die time for the US dollar" is so far resulting in more of a die than a do. EURUSD has now crossed firmly back above the previous 1.3435 low, GBPUSD is flying and the greenback never showed much fight against the commodity currencies this week, so if we are to avoid the impression that the greenback's star is fading, it must get something started quickly over the next couple of days.
Looking ahead
Tonight in Asia we have the quarterly Tankan survey out of Japan, Australian Trade Balance and Chinese Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow features German Retail Sales, the UK Manufacturing PMI, and the US ISM Manufacturing Survey. Remember that most European markets and the US market are closed on Friday, so tomorrow is the last trading day of the week for many, with possibly treacherously thin markets on Friday as the US pushes ahead with its employment report despite the holiday.
The other two critical markets worth watching next week are the US treasury markets (US 10-year yields still poised at the massive neckline on an upside down head and shoulders formation and treasury auctions already starting on Monday) and the oil market, with the May WTI contract poised less than a dollar from the 18 month+ highs.
Be even more careful out there than normal.

FX Closing Note: End of Month/Quarter/JPY Year - Here we come !

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

FX Closing Note: End of Month/Quarter/JPY Year - here we come!

Today is the setup day ahead of the end of the quarter for most of the world and the end of the financial year for Japan tomorrow. This month has seem some very chunky moves across asset classes, particularly in equities, and this, combined with end of month/quarter/year considerations tomorrow means that we could see extra large fixing volatility tomorrow.
If we throw the above comments together with the busy US calendar for the rest of the week and the Easter holiday on Friday (and Monday for much Europe) and we have the potential makings of a rather chaotic few days here.
The action today saw a renewed Euro sell-off on the continued Greek woes. The pound saw a resurgence on (rather flimsy) data support, and more likely on pressures in market positioning and a squeeze on shorts.
Chart: EURGBP
Today saw a huge sell-off in EURGBP that challenged important recent range support. The next big downside objective if the single currency is to gain further momentum is the 200-day MA average that has been so pivotal in the recent past.

Chart: FX Volatility
This is a measure of broad FX volatility (from Deutsche Bank, which uses 1-month volatilities), which has persistently fallen since the panicky days of late 2008 and early 2009 along with the general rise in risk willingness. Last week saw an sizable uptick as there finally enough of a sell-off in equities for volatility to ruffle its feathers slightly. Looking at the bigger picture, it is easy to see that volatility has been much lower in the past and we continue to fall toward the average of the 2004-06 days, we should be projecting AUDUSD to parity and a continued heyday for EM currencies. But what is the new normal for volatility, if there is one? It would seem that expecting a repeat of the great bubble days of 2004-early 2007 when banks were leveraging themselves to the hilt and volatility only seemed to fall, fall, fall is out of the question. This will especially be true if bond yields really are ready to break out here.

Looking ahead
Strap on your crash helmets, as we may be in for choppy trading conditions ahead for all of the reasons we have outlined today. After today's close we get another weekly ABC consumer confidence report. Then after the Thursday and Friday event risks, we have a very heavy treasury auction calendar next week. Some are pointing out the negative US 10-yr. swap spread and pondering its implications (see article here: ), so the US bond market next week will be a potentially important focus for the greenback, and certainly for the JPY.Here is the question of the day on this matter however: can you have a destabilizing US bond market and continued strong risk appetite globally? If we do see an ugly situation with funding shortfalls in the US bond market, this would see a further sharp rise in US yields and could serve to short circuit the development in ever lower volatility we showed above. And in that case, what does the market prefer to do in as the US bond market goes up in flames to a greater or less degree, sell greenbacks and buy riskier currencies? It's already been doing that hand over fist lately...any such development in the US bond market would, in other words, likely change the current market paradigm.

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Commodities Fall as Euro Tumbles Ahead of EU Summit

The euro accelerates its decline as the EU Summit approaches. The single currency tumbles against major counterparts as the sovereign debt problem in Greece is at crossroads. Selloff in the euro pressures gold which leads declines in other precious metals. Oil prices also weaken, reflecting dismal inventory data as well as macroeconomic uncertainty.
Financial ministers in the EU will meet on March 25/26 with the most critical issue being financial support to Greece. News reported that both German and France now agree to involve the IMF in arranging a package to help Greece over the heavy debts. (Potential) involvement of the IMF hurts the euro as it signals that the European currency union is incapable of handling its own troubles. While the kinds of assistance that IMF will offer remain unknown, it's likely that the Fund would impose strict economic plans for Greece so as to ensure it can repay the loans. The market also worries this would cause Greece to temporarily exit the Eurozone.
France and many EU countries have strongly opposed an IMF involvement while Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested it. Should both France and Germany now reach an agreement, it highly increases the chance that other EU countries will agree.
The deficit problem is contagious to other peripheral European countries and Fitch Ratings cut Portugal's credit rating to AA-, citing worries on the country's deteriorating public finance. The agency also put Portugal in 'negative' outlook meaning further downgrade is likely.
The euro slides to 1.337, the lowest level since May 2009, against the dollar. It also drops against the yen and the pound. Against Swiss franc, the single currency plummets to a record low on speculations that the SNB has given up currency intervention.
Gold falls to 1093.4 as investors forgo the yellow metal's safe haven property and turn to the dollar. Silver drops in tandem, losing -1.9% to 16.7.
Crude oil dives to 80.35, losing more than 1 dollar from yesterday's close as investors react to the huge stockbuilds (+7.8 mmb) in crude oil, according to API. The market anticipates the US Energy Department will report increase in crude inventory but draws in oil product inventories.
On the data front, PMIs in the Eurozone beat market expectations but industrial new orders surprisingly contracted in January.
March Manufacturing and services PMIs in the 16-nation region improved to 56.3 (consensus: 52) and 53.7 (consensus: 52) from 54.2 and 51.8 respectively. The readings indicates economy is recovering in the Eurozone. However, industrial new orders contracted -2% m/m in January after rising +0.8% in the prior month. We may see if better figures will be released in coming months.

Financial Chaos: Why You Need to Own Stocks

Financial Chaos: Why You Need to Own Stocks
By Tom Dyson
Friday, March 26, 2010

Here's a prediction...

Cost of living soars. There's surplus capacity in almost every industry and major corrections are likely. Currencies and bonds lose their purchasing power as governments inflate money supplies. People are hopelessly in debt... 10 times the normal levels. Millions go bankrupt... as do the businesses that extend credit without collateral.

Pretty dire, huh?

Sir John Templeton made these predictions on June 15, 2005. Templeton was one of the top investment legends of the 20th Century, equal in stature to men like J.P. Morgan and Cornelius Vanderbilt from the 19th Century. He built a billion-dollar fortune playing the stock market and selling mutual-fund investments to the public.

 He put these predictions in a memo he wrote from his home in the Bahamas. In short, Templeton believed the peak of prosperity was behind us, dangers were more numerous and larger than at any time in the last 90 years, and countries around the world would experience financial chaos for many years.

The memo was lost and never published. Templeton died in 2008. The note resurfaced a few days ago...

You can read a full version of the lost memo, with some introductory notes by the first journalist to find it, here.

In hindsight, Templeton was right on target in his assessment of the world. The question is, how much more "financial chaos" is there still to come?

My DailyWealth coeditor Steve Sjuggerud thinks we've seen the worst already and the recession is behind us. Templeton says it'll last "many years." My personal observations lead me to agree with Templeton. The main reason is, thanks to the government's huge bailout, none of the excesses Templeton was so worried about have been resolved.

Take the homebuilding industry, for instance. Of all the industries that had overcapacity, the homebuilding industry was one of the worst. It built over 1.5 million new houses per year between 1998 and 2006. In 2005, it built over 2 million new houses. New home sales are currently running around 300,000 a year. In other words, there's almost seven times more capacity than the industry needs.

Yet, so far, not a single major homebuilder has gone bankrupt. The government recently bailed them all out with a massive raft of tax breaks and subsidies. And thanks to the huge stock market rally, they've been able to recapitalize themselves by selling more shares to the public.

Templeton's memo predicted this kind of absurd government support, too. "Voters are likely to enact rescue subsidies," he wrote, "which transfer the debts to governments."

So where does Templeton suggest you put your money to protect it from this financial chaos... Gold? Cash? Bonds?

Nope. Templeton likes stocks. Particularly, he likes businesses with perpetually wide profit margins and operations all around the world:

"Not yet have I found any better method to prosper during the future financial chaos which is likely to last many years," he says, "than to keep your net worth in shares of those corporations that have proven to have the widest profit margins and the most rapidly increasing profits. Earning power is likely to continue to be valuable, especially if diversified among many nations."   In other words, if you're worried about continuing financial chaos, you should buy stock in Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Intel, Altria, Philip Morris International, ExxonMobil, and Pepsi...

The beauty of this approach is, if Templeton is wrong and Steve is right, and the worst of our economic troubles are behind us, these stocks will still perform well. You win either way.

Good investing,

Tom.

FX Closing Note: Key reversal or just "profit taking"?

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

FX Closing Note: Key reversal or just "profit taking"?

A quick reminder to see the rundown of next week's economic calendar highlights from our morning update .
 It was more than a bit disappointing for the risk bulls to see the week close on a sour note, though optimists might try to write it off as profit-taking or odd behavior and/or profit taking from the triple witching phenomenon. Regardless, it created a number of interesting setups in the FX charts.
If we are simply to exercise some fundamental chart reading principles, however, then it appears something significant - or at least interesting -  is going on here, especially in the commodity currencies, which together with EM currencies had enjoyed the most strength on the recent rally in global risk appetite. Next week will tell us whether this is just another one-off blip in risk willingness like the last one that only lasted three days in late February, or whether there is the risk of a further meltdown. Symbolically, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is trying to decide whether to close right on the support from the old high or just below it as we are writing this.
Chart: USDCAD
An outside day and potential key reversal today after CAD tried to challenge new levels vs. the greenback on very positive retail sales and CPI data. That positive data saw large scale profit taking when equities tumbled and then oil followed suit later in the day. Note the turn in the stochastics. Minimum upside follow through targets come in at the old 1.0225 low and then possible 1.0370. Still, this is so far just an upward blip in an onslaught of declines.

 Chart: AUDUSD
AUDUSD  was unable to maintain prices above 0.9200. That area now acts as resistance and we look for potential follow through lower if risk aversion continues. The strong swoon in commodities, especially gold is also worth nothing today. There are a cluster of support points in the 0.9085 to 0.9035 area that are the next major focus. A failure of those could lead to a test of the 200-day SMA now down below 0.8800.


Chart: EURGBP
A key follow up move to the upside after three steep days of declines that more thoroughly . This sets the focus higher again for the coming week for EURGBP. Today the Euro did relatively well, showing that broad risk aversion is far less damaging to the Euro than the commodity currencies, for example.


Chart: NZDJPY
JPY crosses largely tracked USD crosses today, enjoying the risk aversion and a rally in bonds, though much of that rally was curiously unwound late in the US. Here we show NZDJPY as an example of the JPY crosses, all of which, outside of USDJPY, showed a bearish pattern reversal on the day. JPY bears will note the disappointment with the inability of this pair to hold above the previous salient highs in the 64.40 area more convincingly. Note the convergence of the price with the 55-day and 200-day moving averages here.



Chart: NZDJPY Ichimoku
There is an interesting Ichimoku angle to NZDJPY as well, as the cloud resistance appears to be holding after a recent break attempt. Technical impressions from the charts in these markets must be combined with the knowledge that the end of this month is the end of the Japanese financial year, as March and April are known for their volatility in the JPY crosses.



Looking ahead
The short end of the US yield curve has snapped higher for the last two days in a row, a rather interesting development considering the very weak inflation data for February.  The March EuroDollar is about 14 pips lower from the highs of yesterday. Are Fed expectations stirring? And what will this mean for risk appetite - is the rally on built on low rates forever or is there a more solid foundation?
Chart: March 2011 EuroDollar STIR
A steep sell-off over the last couple of days suggests some interest in pricing in a more hawkish Fed.
 Be careful out there.

What to Do About the Euro Now

What to Do About the Euro Now
By Steve Sjuggerud
Friday, March 19, 2010

Three months ago, everybody hated the U.S. dollar...

The consensus was near unanimous. Investors were certain the dollar was doomed.

Where did investors put their money to avoid the certainly-doomed U.S. dollar? In euros...

We did the exact opposite... In my newsletter True Wealth, we bet against the euro in a very safe way. Readers are now up about 10% in three months.

But what's this? We're seeing a completely different situation today from what we saw three months ago... 

Investors now HATE the euro. And they (surprisingly) love the U.S. dollar. Investors have bought dollars and short-sold euros in record amounts (even more so than a month ago). Take a look at how far the euro index has fallen since late November...

The extreme we're seeing is typical of turning points in a currency's trend. So I fully expect the euro to have a violent bounce to kick out all these short-term traders. The euro has already ticked up above its bottom in February.

Most people trade currencies with a huge amount of leverage. A couple-percentage-point move could wipe them out completely. And I expect it will.

So is it time for us to abandon our trade in True Wealth? This is a fantastic question...

It all comes down to your timeframe and risk.

If you're a short-term trader, trading with a lot of leverage, you need to get out of the trade now. The cards are stacked against you. Too many people are betting against the euro... They could kick off a violent rally in the euro as they try to get out of positions that are going against them. So I wouldn't fault you if you took the three-month 10% gain.

But if you have a longer-term perspective and you are not wildly leveraged – which is where we are in True Wealth – then you can just ride it out. A couple-percentage-point move is just a setback. (I could also be completely wrong about a violent move up in the euro... The historical precedent isn't 100% here.)

My two cents on the euro situation right now is that heavily leveraged bets against the euro will get wiped out, and soon. Then the euro will be back on its downtrend.

Good investing,

Steve.

FX Closing Note: An interesting Thursday by at least one measure

FX Closing Note: An interesting Thursday by at least one measure

Currencies dithered all day long yet again, and mostly ended the day back at the starting point. Commodity currencies tried to sell-off, but ended the day unchanged. JPY crosses did largely the same. Meanwhile, risk ended the day on another high note, with the major US indices closing at a new high for the cycle, though the S&P's new high is only about two points above yesterday's mark. Bonds tried to gain encouragement from a very strong 30-year T-bond auction in the US - the strongest in about half a year in fact - but ended the day largely unchanged as well.
GBPUSD followed up on yesterday's bullish hammer reversal with some further gains today, but the magnitude was not overwhelming. EURGBP also reversed most of yesterday's gains. Still, it was a strong performance from the pound considering yesterday's bevy of ugly developments for the UK. Is the market getting a bit tired of selling the pound here?
The SNB failed to ignite the any volatility in CHF crosses and EURUSD's range on the day was 66 pips, which is the smallest range for a Thursday since last August. Whether it means anything or not, it is interesting. It might suggest that there is a lack of conviction in the market's response to risk appetite. It might be some sign of "the calm before the storm" Or it might mean that markets are simply going into boring mode. We would only reject the final hypothesis. Still, there is little juice to extract from such a dry boring day of activity, except to note that low volatility could mean an opportunity to express a view through options, as they're about as cheap as they have been since the crisis hit. (see more on this in the chart below)
Our chart of the day
One of the more interest charts we've dreamt up on one of the more forgetful days in recent memory. Here is a look at the VIX (yellow) as compared to the EURUSD 3M vol. (red) and then the AAII survey of percent of stock market investors who are bearish (green), which is close to its lowest multi-year lows. Looks like complacency from where we are sitting.

Looking ahead
Tonight we have NZ retail sales and tomorrow we have the Canadian employment report and the US Advance Retail Sales, as well as the preliminary University of Michigan confidence report for March.
Be careful out there.

Futures Contracts Indicate Crude Oil's Upside is Limited

Despite narrow trading, crude oil manages to stay above 80 in European session. Others in the energy complex also make little change from yesterday's close. Trading is thin as the market awaits US' employment report.
Natural gas continues its journey to the south. The benchmark contract plunged -3.9% as decline in US gas storage was less than expected. The US Energy Department reported gas inventory drew -116 bcf to 1737 bcf in the week ended February 26, while analysts had anticipated a bigger drop by -130 bcf. Investors were disappointed as current level of inventory is +1.2% above 5-year average. As winter is going to end soon, gas consumption will likely drop. The above-normal gas storage may put further downward pressure on price.
In spite of high volatility, the front-month crude oil price has been trading close 80. In fact, crude oil has closed above 75 on monthly basis since October 2009 (except for January, 2010). While the front-month contract has been hovering around 18-month high and has gained +1.6% year-to-date, long-dated contracts, on the contrary, is recording losses. For instance, WTI futures for December 2015 settled at 90.23 yesterday, losing -4% year-to-date, while that for December 2018 settled at 96.01 yesterday and dropped -5.75% from December 31, 2009. The phenomenon suggests that investors are not anticipating a much stronger oil price in the long-term. The premium (the timespread) is probably due to inflation.
Correlation between gold and crude oil prices has been higher since 2001, with the exception of 2008 when crude oil plummeted severely after reaching a record higher in July. If long-dated oil futures indicate upside for crude oil is limited, we worry about gold's outlook too.
Gold edges slightly higher to 1135 in European session. For the rest of the day, the yellow metal's movement is determined by US' payroll data.
In PGMs, palladium extends its 7-day rally to as high as 467.35 (2010 high 474.5) while platinum pulls back after closing flat at 1583.6 Thursday. Palladium has outperformed platinum since 2009 and the situation is brought forward to 2010. Recent strength in palladium price has been driven by strong auto sales data in the US and China. Both countries have high proportions of gasoline vehicles which use more palladium than platinum in autocatalytic applications. On the contrary, Europe has a high proportion of diesel vehicles with most heavy trucks and buses are diesel-powered. Diesel vehicles rely heavier on platinum rather than palladium.




FX Closing Note: Interesting setup ahead of US employment

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

FX Closing Note: Interesting setup ahead of US employment

The US pushed stronger again in today's session, earlier in the day against the JPY, which suddenly turned south after the release of the US weekly initial jobless claims report (which was perfectly in-line and not worthy of much of a reaction, unless the market suddenly thought that the bigger than expected drop in continuing claims was great news for the USD) Before the USDJPY spike, as we mentioned in this morning's report, treasuries had ticked down sharply, which is a pattern that makes sense due to the JPY's negative correlation with interest rates. But later in the day, US treasuries found strong support and rallied back to the top of the range, but this hardly put a dent in the USDJPY rally. Rumors swirled that this might be a sign of intervention, but it could also be a large hand unwinding its position or other heavy market flow in the nervous market ahead of tomorrow's US employment report. Either way, it makes for an interesting technical reversal, as can be seen in the chart below.
Chart: USDJPY
Today's bullish reversal saw the rejection of an attempt at new lows since mid-December. The rally stopped right at the daily Ichimoku cloud, which will be a key resistance as head into tomorrow's US employment report.
As we mentioned earlier in the day, the BoE and ECB meetings were of limited interest to the market for direction. The STIR market tried to react to Trichet's rhetoric, but the March 2011 Euribor contract ended the day only a tick and a half lower, while the US March 2011 Eurodollar was off 5 ticks on the day (perhaps because longs took profits ahead of tomorrow's employment data after this contract saw contract More interestingly, later in the day, the Euro swooned further after Moody's downgraded Deutsche Bank's long term senior debt, suddenly lurching from above 1.3600 to almost 1.3550.
Outside of today ugly Pending Home sales, we had a very positive ICSC Chain Store sales report to add to yesterday's better than expected US ISM non-manufacturing report as evidence that the US recovery may be picking up a bit of speed, if not so much in terms of employment. Let's see if tomorrow's report confirms or refutes that theme.
Looking ahead
Another indecisive day in risk appetite today leaves the markets poised to break either way tomorrow. The setup for the likes of USDJPY (bullish reversal, but still with key resistance in place at around 89.30), AUDUSD (tried recently to cross above that key 0.9040 threshold but so far failed) and EURUSD (bearish rejection today, but found support at very interesting retracement level at 1.3550, which is an interesting 0.618 Fibo retracement level for the wave up from the sub 1.3500 low to yesterday's 1.3736 high.). This all would seem to add up to an either/or outcome at tomorrow's US employment report.

FX Update : Euro short squeeze underway ?

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

FX Update: Euro short squeeze underway?

Greece was out announcing further immediate steps aimed at staunching the bleeding in public finances with tough new measures that were expected to net almost EUR 5 billion. These measures include a 2% increase in the VAT, a rise in duties on alcohol and fuel, and a trimming of public salary "supplements" by 12%. Greek PM Papandreou said he was "awaiting EU solidarity", essentially saying the rest of the EU that Greece is doing as much as it can at the moment. Whether that is enough for France and German to risk moral hazard and some kind of official backup of Greece remains to be seen. Germany's Merkel and France's Sarkozy are to meet with Papandreou on Friday in Berlin. Markets continue to unwind their bets on a Greek blowup, with Greek bond spreads tightening fairly sharply again today (Greek 10-yr. debt trades close to 6.00% at present relative to 7.00% for a couple of days in late January).
In other news, it is reported that the European Commission wants to look into the regulation of the sovereign CDS market and the US Department of Justice has "asked" hedge funds not to destroy trading records related to their bets on the situation in Europe and the Greek crisis.  Clearly, it is becoming ever tougher for hedge funds to operate in this environment, and a significant public sector activism is a powerful risk in the market at any time.
Chart: EURJPY
EURJPY posting a double bottom here over the last week and rejecting the new levels so far below the previous significant low at 120.70. The technicals suggest some rally potential, though we would also like to see EuroBunds selling off more as a confirming indicator.  A close below 120.00 in the near term raises the risk of a new extension lower for this bear market. The US ISM non-manufacturing release up shortly could decide the pair’s fate in the shortest term.
Aussie data
Australia's growth data was mostly in-line, but with the currency priced for perfection,  it seems to need upside surprises to find continued strength in this market. Yesterday saw an interesting reversal in EURAUD that may be a hint that the AUD star is fading a bit within the G-10. Another chink in the Aussie's armor can be found in yet another poor showing from the AiG Performance of Services index, which continues to roll in a below breakeven levels, a bit of misfit in the data stream from Down Under, which is supposedly the G-10's poster child at the moment (spotlight shared perhaps with Canada...). Still, as long as risk appetite is marching higher and gold continues to rally, it will be tough for the market to keep a lid on this currency. (Gold marched to a new record in Euro and Pound terms yesterday).
Pound rebound?
The pound trying to perk up a little today. Late yesterday, as an FT article expressed doubt on whether the UK's Prudential would be able to swallow a company of AIA's size (the deal was estimated at $35 billion). This story is certainly worth following for the trajectory of sterling. Other good news keeping the pound from a further sharp drop here were a very strong Services PMI report today and a strong Nationwide Consumer Confidence report out overnight. Let's see if this can keep GBPUSD above 1.5000 in the wake of today's US data.
US ADP data
The market has initially shrugged its shoulders at the slightly negative ADP data (in-line for February, but a -38k revision to the January number) as perhaps worse levels were feared on a few weeks of weaker than expected jobless claims. Let's watch the Friday nonfarm payrolls for confirmation or lack thereof as well as the unemployment rate adjustment. Just as important, have a peek at the ISM Non-manufacturing employment subindex, which has consistently registered ugly readings since the crisis hit in late 2008.
Looking ahead
We are all aware by now of the strong surge in the US manufacturing sector, as the US ISM has surged to well above 50 for the last several months. But the dominant services sector of the economy has shown little improvement, and continues to languish around the breakeven market of 50. This is an important reading on where we stand, though one has to wonder if we will get a better reading in March and April as we have had extreme weather events in large portions of the most heavily populated regions of the US that may have slowed economic activity.  Watch out for the Fed's Beige Book later in the US session.
Euro posted a significant technical reversal yesterday against the greenback, AUD, CAD, and JPY, to a lesser extent. We may be witnessing the beginnings of a short squeeze on Euro bears here in the near term. How high could such a squeeze take us?
Economic Data Highlights
  • US Feb. Total Domestic Vehicle Sales out at 7.91M vs. 8.0M expected
  • Feb. Australia AiG Performance of Service Industries out at 48.3 vs. 47.4 in Jan.
  • UK Feb. Nationwide Consumer Confidence rose to 80 vs. 73 expected and 74 in Jan.
  • Australia Q4 GDP out at +0.9% QoQ and +2.7% YoY vs. +0.9/+2.4% expected, respectively
  • Germany Jan. Retail Sales out at 0.0% MoM and -3.4% YoY vs. -0.6/-1.1% expected, respectively
  • Sweden Q4 Current Account out at 40.8B vs. 54B in Q3
  • UK Feb. PMI Services out at 58.4 vs. 55.0 expected and 54.5 in Jan.
  • EuroZone Jan. Retail Sales out at -0.3% MoM and -1.3% YoY vs. -0.3/-1.6% expected, respectively
  • US Feb. Challenger Job Cuts fell -77.4% YoY vs. -70.4% in Jan.
  • US Feb. ADP Employment Change out at -20k as expected
Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights
  • US Feb. ISM Non-manufacturing (1500)
  • US Weekly DOE Crude Oil and Product Inventories (1530)
  • US Fed's Lockhart to Speak (1800)
  • US Fed's Beige Book (1900)
  • Japan Q4 Capital Spending (2350)
  • Australia Jan. Trade Balance (0030)
  • Japan BoJ's Noda to Speak (0130)

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