The positive sentiment could continue ahead of the US labor market data today, but the market is likely to be disappointed as the Unemployment Rate has a high likelihood of being released at 10%
Calendar
Economic Data Releases
|
|
Country
| Time (GMT)
| Name
| Expectation
| Prior
| Comment
|
GE
| 11:00
| Factory Orders MoM (SEP)
| 1.0%
| 1.4%
|
|
US
| 13:30
| Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (OCT)
| -175K
| -263K
| Saxo exp.: -205K
|
US
| 13:30
| Unemployment Rate (OCT)
| 9.9%
| 9.8%
| Saxo exp.: 10.0%
|
What's going on?
· Strong rally in stocks yesterday, engulfing all price action on Wednesday in S&P500. The positive sentiment could continue ahead of the US labor market data today, but the market is likely to be disappointed as the Unemployment Rate in our opinion has a high likelihood of being released at 10% and the NFP could also disappoint. Look for the Participation Rate and Weekly Hours as well.
· Our stance: Don’t be long over the figures. Buy on eventual dips afterwards.
· The RBA was decidedly bullish on the Australian economy o/n and AUDUSD is likely to test the previous highs within next week.
FX
FX
| Daily stance
| Comment
|
EURUSD
| 0/+
| Prefer to buy dips to 1.4835-45 for a rebound through 1.49 targeting 1.4950-60. Stop below 1.48
|
USDJPY
| 0
| Likely stuck in a 90.40-91.20 range
|
EURJPY
| 0
| Expect to trade in a 134.25 – 135.35 range today
|
GBPUSD
| +
| Chance of further upside after y’day’s action. Break abv 1.6625 tgts 1.67, suppt 1.6540-50
|
AUDUSD
| +
| Buy break abv 0.9150, or any dip down to 0.9080, for 0.9220 then 0.9260
|
FX Options
FX-Options
| Comment
|
EURUSD
| Vols heavily offered yesterday as large DNTs being protected in both directions.
|
| Believe vols will sell off further and expect a tight range for the rest of the year.
|
EURCHF
| Vols slightly bid and RR trading further in favour of EURCHF.
|
| Huge options related stops between 1.5000 and 1.5050.
|
|
|
|
|
Equities
Equities
| Daily stance
| Comment
|
DAX
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 5412 targeting 5471. S/L below 5380.
|
FTSE
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 5100 targeting 5138. S/L below 5075.
|
S&P500
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 1051 targeting 1060. S/L below 1045.
|
Nasdaq100
| 0/+
|
|
DJIA
| 0/+
|
|
Futures
Commodities
| Daily Stance
| Comment
|
Gold
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 1085 and target 1095. Stop below 1080.
|
Silver
| 0/+
| Buy at the break of 17.62 and target 17.85. Stop below 17.50.
|
Oil (CLZ9)
| 0/-
| Sell on the break of 79 and target 77.50. Stop above 80.30.
|
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