Positive sentiment from US Vehicle Sales and Factory Orders and ISM Manufacturing should continue into today’s US session, but the ISM Non-Manufacturing could be the party-killer.
Calendar
Economic Data Releases
|
|
Country
| Time (GMT)
| Name
| Expectation
| Prior
| Comment
|
US
| 13:15
| ADP Employment Change (OCT)
| -198K
| -254K
|
|
US
| 15:00
| ISM Non-Manufacturing (OCT)
| 51.5
| 50.9
|
|
US
| 19:15
| FOMC Rate Decision
| 0.25%
| 0.25%
|
|
Earnings Releases
|
|
Country
| Time (GMT) (G(GMT)(GMT)
| Name
| EPS exp.
| EPS prior
| Comment
|
US
| Aft-Mkt
| Cisco Systems Inc.
| 0.309
| 0.250
|
|
What's going on?
· Positive sentiment from earnings, US Vehicle Sales and Factory Orders and ISM Manufacturing should continue into today’s US session, but the ISM Non-Manufacturing (covering 90% of the US economy) could be the party-killer. Our stance today is a “buy-on-dips” ahead of the ISM Non-Manufacturing.
· Gold rallied 2.3% ($25) to new all-time highs at 1083, indicating more widespread distrust in the USD. Commodities also doing quite well.
· Watch out for ADP Employment Change at a leading indicator of Nonfarm Payrolls out in two days. The employment component of ISM Manufacturing on Monday came out in expansionary (that is 50+) territory for the first time since July 2008, which is positive for manufacturing payrolls. Initial jobless claims are, however, still very high.
FX
FX
| Daily stance
| Comment
|
EURUSD
| 0
| Expect rally to stall in 1.4740-70 window but retracement limited to 1.4650. Trade that range.
|
USDJPY
| 0/+
| Break abv 90.50 would target 91.0, poss 91.25 before lower. Suppt now at 90.15-20.
|
EURJPY
| 0
| N/term res at 133.55-60. Break abv targets 134.25 but likely 132.25 – 133.60 range.
|
GBPUSD
| 0/-
| Res at 1.6445, then 1.6480 expected to contain rally for re-test of 1.6360. Stop abv 1.6525.
|
AUDUSD
| 0/+
| Buy break abv 0.9045 for a re-test of 0.9110, poss 0.9180. Suppt now at 0.8970 lvl.
|
FX Options
FX-Options
| Comment
|
EURUSD
| With spot at 1.4625 low yesterday, we again saw increasing interests for buying EUR puts and 1m
|
| 25delta rr now favors EUR puts with more than 1 vol. Also saw 1m strike 1.4500 trading in 500 mio.
|
| All pointing towards a lower spot.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Equities
Equities
| Daily stance
| Comment
|
DAX
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 5396 targeting 5444. S/L below 5376.
|
FTSE100
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 5055 targeting 5095. S/L below 5037.
|
S&P500
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 1043 targeting 1052. S/L below 1039.
|
Nasdaq100
| 0/+
|
|
DJIA
| 0/+
|
|
Futures
Commodities
| Daily Stance
| Comment
|
Gold
| 0/+
| Buy on dips towards 1076 and target 1086. Stop below 1070.
|
Silver
| 0/+
| Buy at the break of 17.33 and target 17.60. Stop below 17.15.
|
Oil (CLZ9)
| 0/+
| Buy at the break of 79.80 and target 81.50. Stop below 79.
|
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