Watch Out For Claims From The US Today - Wakeup Call

Watch out for the weekly employment data from the US. Initial jobless claims could disappoint the market, which is expecting a 2K fall in claims, today





What's going on?

Theme Comment
·         Much better than expected employment data from Australia (change in employment was 31.2K vs. 5K expected, resulting in a 0.1%-point drop in the unemployment rate) caused the AUD to rally overnight. Additionally, the S&P 500 staged a comeback in the US session, but we are nevertheless negative on risk today.
·         Watch out for the weekly employment data from the US. Initial jobless claims could disappoint the market, which is expecting a 2K fall in claims, today. Another good number will on the other hand point towards further improvement in Nonfarm Payrolls (and we could even see the NOV change in payrolls revised to a positive number come January).




Calendar

Economic Data Releases

Country
Time (GMT)
Name
Saxo
Consensus
Prior
UK
12:00
BoE Interest Rate / Asset Purchase Amount

0.50% / 200B
0.50% / 200B
US
13:30
Initial / Continuing Jobless Claims

455K / 5450K
457K / 5465K
US
15:00
Geithner testifies on TARP program






FX

FX
Daily stance
Comment
EURUSD
-
Prefer short side below 1.4760/80. Key support at 1.4670 area, then not much until <1.4500.
USDJPY
0/+
Beware large range. Interested in strategic long, but only at good price (low 87.00’s perhaps).
EURJPY
0/-
Short rallies for a try below 128.75 low. Strong bunds market is key for further JPY strength.
GBPUSD
-
Sell ahead of 1.6300, looking for eventual 1.60 test. 55-day MA is at 1.6375 area.
AUDUSD
0/-
Still prefer to be short here if risk aversion comes back on. 0.9180 area is first key resistance.



FX Options

FX-Options
Comment
EURUSD
Front end looked well bid but the middle of the curve is softer. Event risk today and next

week should keep gamma supported.
USDJPY
1Y year ATMs were sold so likely to see some easing in the curve especially given how

much it has climbed this week. Spot under 8800 will ensure vols won’t come off too much.
AUDUSD
1w now gets the FOMC rate decision so remains bid and was paid at 14% first thing this

morning. 2wk area looks very offered and liquidity looks to be drying up.


Equities


Equities
Daily stance
Comment
DAX
0/-
Sell on rallies towards 5714 targeting 5668. S/L above 5736.
FTSE
0/-
Sell on rallies towards 5246 targeting 5217. S/L above 5259.
S&P500
0/-
Sell on rallies towards 1101 targeting 1095. S/L above 1105.
NASDAQ100
0/-

DJIA
0/-




Futures

Commodities
Daily Stance
Comment
Gold
0/-
Sell on rallies towards 1135 targeting 1125. S/L above 1141.
Silver
0/-
Sell at the break of 17.30 targeting 17.12. S/L above 17.41
Oil (CLF0)
0/-
Sell at the break of 70.13  targeting 69.25. S/L above 70.50

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