The buy recommendation for Q2 is underpinned by clear bullish signals that long term sentiment is improving and so far this is being confirmed. From the 7am open on Monday April 4 the cross rallied 400 pips in the first week, recording the strongest performance in one and a half years. However on a daily basis the indications have been for stalling investor enthusiasm at overstretched extremes and all through last week this was supported by increasingly bearish momentum signals warning that selling interest is strengthening. Going into this week, prices have now pulled back 50% of the rally since the end of March ( 130.12 – 140.03 ) and the forecast is bearish below 137.23 to 133.89, a broader 62% correction, then April’s 133.23 bottom or potentially 132.00.
Risk to this forecast would be buying through Wednesday’s 137.23 top. This should be a bullish signal that sentiment is improving again and further gains are likely to retest last Tuesday's top at 138.60 then the April high at 140.03.
No comments:
Post a Comment