Daily Report: Focus Turns to EU Meeting in Poland

Markets responded positively to yesterday's joint announcement by ECB and other major central banks to provide liquidity to Eurozone's banking system through the end of the year. DOW rose 186 pts while Asian equities follow today with Nikkei up 195 pts and broad based strength is seen in other Asian indices. Dollar index is back trading below 76.5 level as major currencies recovered against the greenback. Focus will now turn to EU Finance Ministers meeting in Poland, where UK Chancellor Osbourne and US Treasury Geithner will join. Main focus of discussion is on efforts to ratify the EUR 109b second bailout of Greece. European Commission President Barroso's proposal on eurobonds would likely be discussed there. Geithner is expected to talk about the possibility of leveraging the EUR 440b EFSF fund, like what US did back in 2008 in tackling the credit crunch. Back then, under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, US treasury offered up to USD 20b in credit protection to New York Fed, allowing it to lend up to USD 200b in return.

Yesterday, the ECB announced that, in coordination with the Fed, the BOE, the BOJ and the SNB, to conduct 3-month USD liquidity operations for 3 times through the year. In addition to the 7-day USD facility announced on May 10, 2010, the new operation aims to ensure sufficient liquidity in banks. The offerings will be carried out at in the form of repo, at fixed rate and with full allotment. Tender dates will be October 12, November 9 and December 7. The move had sent stocks higher on improved sentiment as central bankers attempted to ease liquidity problems associated to Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis.

On the data front, Eurozone current account and trade balance will be released in European session. Canadian international securities transactions, US TIC capital flow and U of Michigan consumer sentiment will be the main focus in US session.

Relieve in Eurozone liquidity condition is quite well reflected in XAU/EUR's sharp fall yesterday. Also, it's getting increasing likely that 1374.77 is a medium term formed on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after hitting 261.8% projection of 954.11 to 1088.1 from 1021.21 at 1372. Deeper decline should be seen in near term to 55 days EMA (now at 1222.5) and possibly below. Nevertheless, there should be trend reversal yet and we'd expect strong support above 61.8% retracement of 1021.21 to 1374.77 at 1156.27 to contain downside and bring rebound to extend the consolidation from 1374.77.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.33; (P) 106.16; (R1) 107.23; 

EUR/JPY's recovery from 103.88 extends further to as high as 106.98 so far and is pressing 4 hours 55 EMA. Further rise might be seen but at this point, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 108.01 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 105.08 minor support will flip bias back to the downside and should send EUR/JPY through 103.88 towards next medium term target at 102.42.

In the bigger picture, the break of 105.42 support indicates that whole down trend from 169.96 has resumed. As noted before, the up trend in weekly MACD is broken and EUR/JPY is possibly building up downside momentum again. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 139.21 to 105.42 from 123.31 at 102.42. And sustained break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 89.52, which is close to 88.96 all time low. On the upside, break of 123.31 resistance is needed to confirm trend reversal or we'll stay bearish.