Financial Advisor
Showing posts with label Forex Trading. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex Trading. Show all posts

Don't Trust the New Rally Until You See This Signal

By Tom Dyson

The bull market is back on... almost.

The S&P 500, the most important stock index in the world, is racing to new highs. Two weeks ago, I was ready to proclaim the bear market rally "dead." Then the market whipsawed. It broke to new nine-month highs last week and is now closing in on the 1,000 milestone...



But wait... what about Russia?

To help me keep track of the major trends in the market, I maintain a list of 87 exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These ETFs represent every major stock sector, currency, commodity, and country index. I calculate the three-month performance of each ETF and then order them first to last. By analyzing this list, I can immediately tell which sectors the money's flowing into and which sectors it's leaving.

Russia represents everything stock-market bulls are in love with: Growth in third-world consumption, scarce commodities, global trade, and cheap labor.

Russia topped my ETF performance list from the moment the stock market started rallying in March... until it topped out in June. If Russian stocks aren't soaring, there's a problem.

Below is a chart of Russian stocks, as measured by the Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX). They made new bull market highs in May, pulled back during June, and started rising again in July. Unlike the S&P 500, Russia has not made new highs.



As Jesse Livermore, the original and most famous trend trader used to say, "As the leaders go, so goes the entire market."

Besides Russia, financials, homebuilding, and Indian stocks led the recent market rally. All those charts look a lot like the one above.

Until you see these sectors make new highs, you should remain skeptical of the current rally in the S&P… even though it's enticing.

When I see these sectors make new highs, I'll be ready to issue the "all clear." Until then, I recommend you keep your powder dry...

Good investing,

Tom.

Understanding Forex Trading

Investors and traders around the world are looking to the Forex market as a new speculation opportunity. But, how are transactions conducted in the Forex market? Or, what are the basics of Forex Trading? Before adventuring in the Forex market we need to make sure we understand the basics, otherwise we will find ourselves lost where we less expected. This is what this article is aimed to, to understand the basics of currency trading.

The instrument traded by Forex traders and investors are currency pairs. A currency pair is the exchange rate of one currency over another. The most traded currency pairs are:

EUR/USD: Euro

GBP/USD: Pound

USD/CAD: Canadian dollar

USD/JPY: Yen

USD/CHF: Swiss franc

AUD/USD: Aussie

These currency pairs generate up to 85% of the overall volume generated in the Forex market.

So, for instance, if a trader goes long or buys the Euro, she or he is simultaneously buying the EUR and selling the USD. If the same trader goes short or sells the Aussie, she or he is simultaneously selling the AUD and buying the USD.

The first currency of each currency pair is referred as the base currency, while second currency is referred as the counter or quote currency.
Each currency pair is expressed in units of the counter currency needed to get one unit of the base currency.
If the price or quote of the EUR/USD is 1.2545, it means that 1.2545 US dollars are needed to get one EUR

All currency pairs are commonly quoted with a bid and ask price. The bid (always lower than the ask) is the price your broker is willing to buy at, thus the trader should sell at this price. The ask is the price your broker is willing to sell at, thus the trader should buy at this price.

EUR/USD 1.2545/48 or 1.2545/8

The bid price is 1.2545

The ask price is 1.2548

A pip is the minimum incremental move a currency pair can make. Pip stands for price interest point. A move in the EUR/USD from 1.2545 to 1.2560 equals 15 pips. And a move in the USD/JPY from 112.05 to 113.10 equals 105 pips.

In contrast with other financial markets where you require the full deposit of the amount traded, in the Forex market you require only a margin deposit. The rest will be granted by your broker.

The leverage provided by some brokers goes up to 400:1. This means that you require only 1/400 or .25% in balance to open a position (plus the floating gains/losses.) Most brokers offer 100:1, where every trader requires 1% in balance to open a position.

The standard lot size in the Forex market is $100,000 USD.

For instance, a trader wants to get long one lot in EUR/USD and he or she is using 100:1 leverage.

To open such position, he or she requires 1% in balance or $1,000 USD.

Of course it is not advisable to open a position with such limited funds in our trading balance. If the trade goes against our trader, the position is to be closed by the broker. This takes us to our next important term.

A margin call occurs when the balance of the trading account falls below the maintenance margin (capital required to open one position, 1% when the leverage used is 100:1, 2% when leverage used is 50:1, and so on.) At this moment, the broker sells off (or buys back in the case of short positions) all your trades, leaving the trader “theoretically” with the maintenance margin.

Most of the time margin calls occur when money management is not properly applied.

The trader, after an extensive analysis, decides there is a higher probability of the British pound to go up. He or she decides to go long risking 30 pips and having a target (reward) of 60 pips. If the market goes against our trader he/she will lose 30 pips, on the other hand, if the market goes in the intended way, he or she will gain 60 pips. The actual quote for the pound is 1.8524/27, 4 pips spread. Our trader gets long at 1.8530 (ask). By the time the market gets to either our target (called take profit order) or our risk point (called stop loss level) we will have to sell it at the bid price (the price our broker is willing to buy our position back.) In order to make 60 pips, our take profit level should be placed at 1.8590 (bid price.) If our target gets hit, the market ran 64 pips (60 pips plus the 4 pip spread.) If our stop loss level is hit, the market ran 26 (26 pips plus the 4 pip spread equals 30 pips) pips against us.

It’s very important to understand every aspect of trading. Start first from the very basic concepts, then move on to more complex issues such as Forex trading systems, trading psychology, trade and risk management, and so on. And make sure you master every single aspect before adventuring in a live trading account.

This information was provided by a-forextrading.com

What is FOREX ?

Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) is the arena where a nation's currency is exchanged for that of another at a mutually agreed rate. It was created in the 70's when international trade transitioned from fixed to floating exchange rates, and nowadays is considered to be the largest financial market in the world because of its tremendous turnover.
Introduction to Forex

All currencies are traded in pairs and each is assigned with an abbreviation.

Here are some of them (Table 1):

EUR Euro
USD US Dollar
GBP British Pound
JPY Japanese Yen
CHF Swiss Franc
AUD Australian Dollar
CAD Canadian Dollar
NZD New Zealand Dollar
SGD Singapore Dollar

Base currency is the first currency in the pair. Quote currency is the second currency in the pair.
USD / JPY = 120.25
Base currency Quote currency Rate

This abbreviation specifies how much you have to pay in quote currency to obtain one unit of the base currency (in this example, 120.25 Japanese Yen for one US Dollar). The minimum rate fluctuation is called a point or pip.

Most currencies, except USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY and GBP/JPY where a pip is 0.01, have 4 digits after the period (a pip is 0.0001), and sometimes they are abbreviated to the last two digits. For example, if EURUSD is traded at 1.2389/1.2394 the quote may be abbreviated to 89/94.

The currency pairs on Forex are quoted as the Bid and Ask (or Offer) prices:
Bid Ask
USD / JPY = 120.25 / 120.30

Bid is the rate at which you can sell the base currency, in our case it's US dollar, and buy the quote currency, i.e Japanese Yen.

Ask ( or Offer) is the rate at which you can buy the base currency, in our case US dollars, and sell the quote currency, i.e. Japanese Yen.

Spread is the difference between the Bid and the Ask price.

Pip is the smallest price increment a currency can make. Also known as a point. e.g. 1 pip = 0.0001 for EUR/USD, and 0.01 for USD/JPY.

Currency Rate is the value of one currency expressed in terms of another. The rate depends on the supply and demand on the market or restrictions by a government or by a central bank.

1.0 lot size for different currency pairs (Table 2)

Currency 1.0 lot size 1 pip

EURUSD EUR 100,000 0.0001
USDCHF USD 100,000 0.0001
EURUSD EUR 100,000 0.0001
GBPUSD GBP 70,000 0.0001
USDJPY USD 100,000 0.01
AUDUSD AUD 200,000 0.0001
USDCAD USD 100,000 0.0001
EURCHF EUR 100,000 0.0001
EURJPY EUR 100,000 0.01
EURGBP EUR 100,000 0.0001
GBPJPY GBP 70,000 0.01
GBPCHF GBP 70,000 0.0001
EURCAD EUR 100,000 0.0001
NZDUSD NZD 200,000 0.0001
USDSEK USD 100,000 0.0001
USDDKK USD 100,000 0.0001
USDNOK USD 100,000 0.0001
USDSGD USD 100,000 0.0001
USDZAR USD 100,000 0.0001
CHFJPY CHF 100,000 0.01

Spreads & Margins


Margin is the collateral required to open and maintain a position:

* 1% of transaction size for account balances below $ 100,000
* 2% of transaction size for account balances up to $ 250,000
* 4% of transaction size for account balances above $ 250,000

Balance is the total financial result of all completed transactions and deposits/withdrawals on the trading account.

Floating Profit/Loss is current profit/loss on open positions calculated at the current prices.

Equity is calculated as balance + floating profit - floating loss.

Free margin means funds on the trading account, which may be used to open a position. It is calculated as equity less necessary margin.
Calculating profit/loss

For example, EUR/USD exchange rate is 1.2505/1.2509 and your leverage is 1:100. You believe that EUR/USD will go up and buy 0.1 lot of EUR/USD at 1.2509 (Ask price) - for the contract size refer to Table 2. As we can see from Table 2, 1.0 lot of EUR/USD is 100,000 EUR, which means that 0.1 lot (our example deal size) is 10,000 EUR.

So, you buy 10,000 EUR and sell 10,000*1.2509=12,509 USD. In fact to fund this position you do not have to have 12,509 USD but only 125.09 USD. The rest of the money (in our example 12,383.91 USD) is leveraged to you by Alpari (UK).

Leverage (or gearing) mechanism allows you to open and hold a position much larger than your trading account value. 1:100 leverage means that when you wish to open a new position, then you need to support a deposit 100 times less than the value of the contract you are interested in.

For example, you believe that EUR/USD is moving higher and buy 10,000 EUR and sell 12,509 USD. Assuming you are right and EUR/USD goes up to 1.2599/1.2603 and you decide to close the position: when you close a long position you sell the base currency (10,000 EUR in our example) and buy the quote currency (10,000*1.2599 = 12,599 USD):
Transaction EUR USD
Open a position: buy EUR and sell USD + 10,000 - 12,509
Close a position: sell EUR and buy USD - 10,000 + 12,599
Total: 0 + 90

NB: When you close a short position you buy the base currency and sell the quote currency.

To fund this position you only need 100 EUR (approximately 125 USD) not 10,000 EUR. The profit on this position is 90 pips (1.2599-1.2509=0.0090). A pip or point is a minimal rate fluctuation. For EUR/USD 1 pip is 0.0001 of the price (see Table 2).

This example shows a favourable outcome. If EUR/USD had fallen you would realise a loss not a profit and with leverage this loss will be magnified. For example, if you close the position at 1.2419, your loss would be $90. Should you have doubts about your understanding of risks, please consult your financial adviser.

Lot Size is the number of base currency, underlying asset or shares in one lot defined in the contract specifications. For details refer to the Table 2.

Lot is an abstract notion of the number of base currency, shares or other underlying asset in the trading platform.

Transaction (or deal) size is lot size multiplied by number of lots.

Long Position is a buy position whereby you profit from an increase in price. In respect of currency pairs: buying the base currency against the quote currency.

Short Position is a sell position whereby you profit from a decrease in price. For currency pairs: selling the base currency against the quote currency.

Completed Transaction consists of two counter deals of the same size (open and close a position): buy then sell or vice versa.

Leverage is the term used to describe margin requirements: the ratio between the collateral and the value of the contract. 1:100 leverage means that you can control $100,000 with only $1,000 (1%).

As a result, positions are subject to a swap charge or credit based on the "Rollover/Interest Policy" webpage.


The cost of rollover is based on the interest rate differential of the two currencies. Let’s assume that the interest rates in the EU and USA are 4.25% p.a and 3.5% p.a respectively. Every currency trade involves borrowing one currency to buy another. If you have a buy position of 1.0 lot in EUR/USD, then you earn 4.25% on your Euros and borrow USD at 3.5% per year.

In other words:

* If you have a long position (i.e. bought) and the first currency in the currency pair has a higher overnight interest rate than the second currency, then you receive a gain.
* If you have a short position (i.e. sold) and the first currency in the currency pair has a higher overnight interest rate than the second currency, then you lose the difference.
* If you have a long position (i.e. bought) and the first currency in the currency pair has a lower overnight interest rate than the second currency, then you lose the difference.
* If you have a short position (i.e. sold) and the first currency in the currency pair has a lower overnight interest rate than the second currency, then you receive a gain.
Please note that if you open and close a position before 10:59:45 p.m. (London time) you will not be subject to a rollover.


The act of rolling the currency pair over is known as tom.next, which stands for tomorrow and the next day.

Why trade Forex?

Unlike other financial markets Forex has no physical location, like stock exchanges, for example. It operates through the electronic network of banks, computer terminals or via telephone. The lack of a physical exchange enables Forex to operate on a 24-hour basis, spanning from one time zone to another across the major financial centres (Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, London, New York etc). In every financial centre there are many dealers, who buy and sell currencies 24 hours a day during the whole business week. Trading begins in the Far East, New Zealand (Wellington), then Sydney, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, Moscow, Frankfurt-on-Maine, London and ends in New York and Los Angeles. Below there are approximate trading hours for regional markets (London time):
Japan 00:00-06:30
Continental Europe 06:30-13:00
Great Britain 8:30-15:30
USA 14:30-21:30

Forex has some advantages which make it very popular among investors:

* Liquidity. Forex is the largest financial market in the world, with the equivalent of over $3-4 trillion changing hands daily whereas traded volume on the stock markets equates to only 500 billion US dollars.
* Flexibility. Forex is a 24-hour market, which offers a major advantage over other markets, for example, stock exchanges which are only open during regional business hours. You can respond to breaking news immediately if the situation requires it and customise your trading schedule.
* Lower transaction costs. Traditionally there are no commissions or charges on Forex, except for the spread.
* Margin. Our 1:100 leverage (only for deposits below $ 100,000) is a powerful tool. You need to support a deposit of 1,000 US dollars to make a deal with $100,000. Such high leverage combined with rapid rate fluctuations can make this market profitable but at the same time risky: please see Risk Warning below.

Risk Warning

Under margin trading conditions even small market movements may have a great impact on the customer's trading account. You must consider that if the market moves against you, you may sustain a total loss greater than the funds deposited. You are responsible for all the risks, financial resources you use and for the chosen trading strategy.

This information was provided by 2004-2007 Alpari (UK) Limited

Ratings and Recommendations